Drone Threat Assessment Emerges

Drone Threat Assessment Emerges

Germany is initiating a nationwide assessment of drone-related incidents for the first time, a project expected to be completed by November. The Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) is leading the effort, drawing data from state-level criminal investigation agencies and incorporating contributions from the Federal Armed Forces.

The primary goal of this “Situation Picture Drone Usage” is to analyze and evaluate the threat posed by drones, aiming to provide a systematic and validated overview of the frequency and geographical distribution of unauthorized drone flights. Assessments will particularly focus on incidents impacting critical infrastructure such as energy facilities, military installations and defense contractors, especially where drone usage may be linked to suspected criminal activity and preparation for politically motivated offenses.

The assessment will be updated quarterly and will involve collaboration between a broad range of agencies, including the Federal Military Counterintelligence Service, the Federal Intelligence Service, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution and law enforcement bodies at both the federal and state levels.

While the source of these drone operations remains unconfirmed, there is strong suspicion they originate from Russian vessels operating in the Baltic and North Seas. Currently, the systematic recording of such incidents varies across different federal states.

Lower Saxony’s Interior Minister Daniela Behrens has urged the Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt to expedite the development of the nationwide situation picture, emphasizing that while it’s a crucial first step, it alone won’t significantly improve Germany’s drone defense capabilities. She advocates for a strong stance against Russian President Vladimir Putin, alleging he may be testing NATO’s resolve through these drone incursions.

Behrens has called for a demonstrative “signal of strength” potentially including the immobilization of vessels suspected of operating these drones and the implementation of measures to compel operators of critical infrastructure-such as airports and refineries-to enhance security protocols.

Drone defense is expected to be a central topic at the upcoming Interior Ministers Conference (IMK) in Bremen in early December. Schleswig-Holstein’s Interior Minister Sabine Sütterlin-Waack highlighted the significance of close cooperation between police, intelligence services, the military and civilian authorities, alongside targeted investments in drone detection and defense technologies to build a robust security network against hybrid threats and effectively protect the population and infrastructure. Joint procurement of advanced detection and defense technology is also planned.