A new study from the Technical University of Munich has quantified the potential economic impact of climate change on European forestry, revealing significant regional disparities. The research, presented recently, projects substantial costs for forest owners across the continent, though the nature and scale of those costs vary considerably.
Researchers modeled the effects of climate change until the end of the century, simulating the impact of altered conditions on forest growth and timber yields. The results demonstrate that escalating temperatures and changing weather patterns will drive increased expenses for forest management and restoration, regardless of the specific climate trajectory.
While forests in Northern Europe are predicted to potentially benefit from extended growth periods and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, Central and Southern Europe face particularly pressing needs for adaptation. The study highlights that regional gains are not uniform, with Southern European forests likely experiencing net losses while Scandinavian forests may see advantages.
Based on a baseline period of 1981-2005, when forest-related economic losses totaled approximately €115 billion, the study forecasts that a global temperature increase of 4.8 degrees Celsius could push those losses up to €247 billion. Increased risks of wildfires, severe storms and pest infestations are identified as key drivers of these escalating costs.
The research emphasizes the importance of targeted adjustments to forestry practices, aiming to minimize economic losses and promote the cultivation of climate-resilient forest ecosystems. Specific actions will likely need to be region-specific to address the localized impacts of a changing climate.