Newly declassified documents from the U.S. State Department reveal that then-German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt voiced deep concerns about the potential for a Third World War as early as 1980. The documents, detailing U.S. policy towards Germany during the Jimmy Carter presidency (1977-1981), shed light on Schmidt’s anxieties regarding escalating geopolitical tensions.
According to the records, Schmidt told U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance on February 20, 1980, that he perceived the danger of a global conflict as a significant threat, potentially occurring within the near future, possibly 1981 or even sooner. He identified several potential triggers for such a devastating conflict.
Among the scenarios Schmidt highlighted was a possible incident in the Persian Gulf that could escalate into a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Another possibility he raised was a potential nuclear strike by Moscow against China, intended to prevent a strategic alliance between Washington and Beijing. Schmidt also theorized that the United States might be forced to intervene in such a situation.
Furthermore, he suggested that the Soviet Union, recognizing its inability to win a protracted arms race, might launch a preemptive strike while still holding a perceived advantage. Schmidt deemed this scenario as the “most likely” cause of war.
Schmidt’s apprehension stemmed from several converging crises. These included the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the ongoing hostage crisis involving more than 50 American citizens held by Iranian fundamentalists. He expressed a general distrust of the crisis management strategies employed by the superpowers.