Estonia’s foreign intelligence service anticipates an escalation in Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure across Europe.
Kaupo Rosin, the head of the Estonian External Security Service, warned in an interview with “Welt” that Western nations must prepare for an increasingly dangerous manifestation of Russian state-sponsored terrorism. He stated that Moscow is likely to intensify acts of sabotage within the West, potentially escalating to severe attacks on public spaces, subway systems, or aircraft.
Rosin highlighted the efficiency of such operations, noting that they are relatively inexpensive to execute and pose a low risk for Russian intelligence services. He explained that perpetrators are often criminals motivated solely by financial gain, frequently unaware of their employer. This underscores the crucial need for intelligence agencies to possess robust capabilities to proactively counter these threats, a need he indicated is not universally met.
Beyond sabotage, Rosin pointed to a burgeoning threat for NATO member states in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. He indicated that Moscow is implementing a military reform leading to an increased Russian troop presence along NATO borders. While these units are currently being deployed to Ukraine after a short training period, they are expected to return.
Despite this heightened activity, Rosin does not foresee an imminent Russian attack on a NATO member. He stated that Russia currently respects NATO, aligning with assessments from Western military analysts who believe Russian forces would likely lose a conventional conflict with the alliance. Maintaining this balance, he emphasized, is a continuous task for the Western community. Rosin concluded by observing that Russia is presently occupied with its ongoing military operations in Ukraine.