Germany’s birth rate has seen a significant decline between 2021 and 2024, decreasing from 1.58 to 1.35 children per woman, according to a new analysis released this week by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB). Despite this drop, the desired number of children has remained stable during the same period, presenting a growing discrepancy between aspirations and outcomes.
The analysis reveals that women, on average, desire 1.76 children, while men desire 1.74 – a substantially higher figure than the current birth rate. Researchers interpret this as an indication that planned pregnancies are increasingly being postponed. Consequently, the “fertility gap” the difference between the desired and actual number of children, has widened.
Data indicates a decrease in the proportion of individuals aged 30 to 39 who intend to have a child within the next three years. The percentage of women planning a pregnancy has fallen from 28% to 24%, while men have seen a decline from 28% to 25%.
“Having children remains a central life goal for most young people” stated Carmen Friedrich of the BiB. “The current decline in births, therefore, doesn’t reflect a reduced desire for family, but rather an ongoing postponement of parenthood.
The study attributes the postponement of births to a perceived lack of stability among young adults, exacerbated by international crises and uncertain economic conditions. “Uncertainty negatively impacts family planning” explained co-author Martin Bujard. He emphasized that reliable childcare, affordable housing and effective government action are crucial factors in providing young people with the security needed to make family planning decisions.