Several studies, including research conducted by the Ifo Institute, indicate a rapidly increasing global demand for air conditioning systems as a protective measure against the escalating effects of global warming. The findings highlight a looming challenge requiring urgent and multifaceted solutions.
According to the research, without decisive action, the worldwide energy demand for cooling systems could potentially triple by 2050. Filippo Pavanello, an Ifo Institute researcher, emphasized this point, stating that solutions focusing on increased energy provision, enhanced energy efficiency, the creation of cooler urban environments and the promotion of behavioral changes are now critically needed.
The studies reveal a substantial rise in air conditioning adoption. Currently, only 27% of households globally possess air conditioning units, but projections suggest this figure could reach 55% by 2050. This increase, however, will be unevenly distributed. Projections indicate that less than 15% of African households will have access to cooling systems by mid-century. This disparity could leave nearly four billion people vulnerable to extreme heat without mechanical cooling. Furthermore, lower-income households are likely to face significantly higher expenses for cooling, potentially consuming up to 8% of their income – a stark contrast to the 0.2 to 2.5% spent by wealthier households, exacerbating energy poverty and inequality.
Researchers are advocating for comprehensive measures to expand cooling access and the necessary energy supply, alongside strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation. Specific recommendations include expanding renewable energy sources and storage capacities, implementing energy-efficient technologies, supporting urban planning initiatives to create cooler cities and encouraging behavioral shifts such as moderate thermostat settings. Air conditioning is already a significant driver of global electricity consumption.
“Ensuring sustainable and equitable access to cooled or heat-resistant living spaces must become a global political priority, based on moral, health and social imperatives” Pavanello stated. “Urban temperatures are rising and the number of deaths during intense heat waves is also increasing. Prompt action is essential”.