A significant portion of the German workforce is projected to be affected by planned increases to the statutory minimum wage. According to a new estimate released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Monday, up to 6.6 million jobs across the country could be impacted by the increase scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.
The calculation is based on data from April 2024 and indicates that approximately 17 percent of employment relationships currently fall below the planned minimum wage of €13.90 per hour. If these positions are brought up to the new minimum, the potential increase in total earnings for affected employees is estimated at up to 6 percent, representing roughly €400 million.
The estimate assumes those currently earning below the new minimum wage will receive at least the previously valid rate of €12.82 per hour. Further wage increases occurring after April 2024 were not factored in. Consequently, the figures are considered upper limits and an overestimation of the actual impact, assuming no change in workforce size or structure.
The data suggests a disproportionate benefit for women; approximately 20 percent of jobs held by women are projected to see a rise in hourly wages, compared to roughly 14 percent for men.
Regional disparities are also apparent. Eastern Germany exhibits a noticeably higher proportion of affected employment relationships (around 20 percent) compared to Western Germany (around 16 percent). Mecklenburg-Vorpommern leads with 22 percent of jobs potentially affected, while Hamburg shows the lowest impact at 14 percent. Specific sectors are also predicted to be heavily impacted, including the hospitality industry (56 percent) and the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors (43 percent).
Another wage increase is scheduled for January 1, 2027, raising the minimum wage to €14.60 per hour. Based on the April 2024 data, a potential maximum of 8.3 million jobs, representing roughly 21 percent of employment, could be affected by this subsequent increase. This would represent an additional estimated increase in total earnings of around 4 percent (€430 million) compared to the initial increase slated for 2026.