Economist and historian Adam Tooze warns of a possible oil price crisis in the event of a further escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. While Iran is not one of the major oil exporters, the real risk lies in the possibility of a “desperate act” under intense pressure, Tooze told the Surplus magazine.
The historian cautioned that in the event of a failure to hit Israel with significant rocket fire, Iran might consider closing the Strait of Hormus, targeting tankers, or even launching a direct attack on Saudi Arabia, a scenario he deemed “apocalyptically disastrous for the global market.”
Tooze emphasized the significance of the Strait of Hormus for the overall oil exports of the Gulf States, with two-thirds of Saudi exports passing through this critical waterway. He noted that the war has not yet generated notable price spikes, but the risk of an extreme escalation remains, he warned.