Poland’s Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski expresses little hope that the current negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul will lead to a breakthrough. He believes these negotiations are a test of Russian intentions, with President Putin playing for time and seriously pursuing his goal of subjugating the entire Ukraine. Sikorski is confident that Putin still believes he can win.
For a successful negotiation, Sikorski argues that the presence of US President Donald Trump is not necessarily required. He believes that the country that could end the war and put Putin in his place is China, stating that Russia is “an economic puppet of China.” If China were to threaten an economic embargo, Russia would be forced to comply.
Sikorski expects NATO member states to increase their defense spending to five percent of their economic output. He is optimistic that this goal will be agreed upon at the NATO summit in June, as it was largely agreed upon during the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Antalya.
Such a quota would mean defense spending of over 200 billion euros per year for Germany, which would almost be half of the total budget for 2024. Currently, the defense budget makes up slightly over ten percent of the total budget.
Regarding sanctions against Russia, Sikorski recommends following the proposal by US Senator Lindsey Graham, which focuses on expanding sanctions and strengthening their implementation. Sikorski criticizes that the European mechanisms for implementing sanctions are less effective than the American ones, which are left to the member states. He believes that efforts to enforce sanctions should be bundled together for greater efficiency.