A new survey conducted by Forsa from April 15th to 17th has confirmed the development of the AfD surpassing the CDU/CSU in the “Sunday question.” According to the survey, the AfD currently holds 26 percent, while the CDU/CSU stands at 25 percent, which is more than five percent above their result in the 2019 Bundestagswahl. This represents a significant increase in a short period of time. Additionally, the SPD, with 15 percent, is down 1.4 percent from their election result, indicating that the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition has already lost 4.9 percent of potential voters before even taking office.
The survey also delved into the reasons behind the potential votes for the AfD. Thirty-five percent of voters believe their political views align with the AfD, while 24 percent choose the party due to dissatisfaction with the current government, 15 percent because of reservations against Friedrich Merz and 19 percent reject the entire political system. Only 7 percent cited other reasons.
A total of 12 percent of respondents nationwide expressed a possibility of voting for the AfD. The majority of potential voters could potentially shift away from the CDU/CSU, with 13 percent of their voters and 4 percent of SPD voters considering this step. However, the number of CDU voters surpasses those of FDP and BSW, with 25 and 33 percent respectively, considering the AfD as a potential choice.
The main reasons for considering this decision are “if the new federal government performs poorly” at 22 percent, “dissatisfaction with the old parties” at 20 percent and “insufficient limitation of immigration” at 19 percent.
The survey also shows a decline in the economic optimism of citizens. Only 19 percent expect an improvement in Germany’s economic situation in the coming years, an eight percent decrease from immediately after the election. A total of 56 percent anticipate a deterioration, while only 23 percent expect no change. Consequently, concerns about the economic situation have increased, with 44 percent citing it as a primary concern, followed by 30 percent due to the war in Ukraine and 29 percent due to US politics.
In summary, the survey results signal an unexpected and rapid loss of trust in the new government, potentially benefiting the AfD.