Swine fever (MKS) is spreading in Hungary and Slovakia. While veterinarians are vaccinating and authorities are closing borders, politicians are raising suspicions about bioterrorism. Scientists are calling for caution. However, uncertainty remains, along with the question of how vulnerable Europe really is.
The outbreak began as a routine case in Kisbajcs, Hungary. Within a few days, the outbreak expanded, affecting three Hungarian and six Slovakian farms. The reactions were swift: emergency status, mobile disinfection stations, increased controls – even military units were mobilized.
What makes this case particularly noteworthy is not only the return of the disease but also the tone politicians are taking. Hungary’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Gergely Gulyás spoke at a press conference about a “manufactured virus” based on evidence from an overseas laboratory – a finding that has not yet been independently confirmed. Similar sentiments came from Slovakia: Agriculture Minister Richard Takáč stated that they are also investigating intentional introduction.
While politicians speculate, the scientific community urges caution. Renowned Czech virologist Jiří Černý told Politico that there is currently no evidence of intentional manipulation or release of the virus. Instead, contamination through contaminated clothing, transport, or migratory birds is much more plausible.
The EU reference laboratory also weighs in: the identified serotype O is genetically related to a Pakistani strain from 2018 – a hint but no proof of an intentionally spread virus. That diseases of this kind can spread along global trade routes or through animal transport is historically documented.
In the heightened post-COVID time, suspicions of bioterrorism act as a accelerant: headlines are created quickly, fears even faster. Even though the suspicion is currently hardly substantiated, the MKS case shows how sensitive Europe’s agricultural systems have become – and how easily panic can spread.
Several countries have reacted: Austria and the Czech Republic are strengthening their borders. Britain has temporarily stopped importing meat and dairy products from the EU. Switzerland has not reported any cases but is closely monitoring the situation.
Regardless of the cause, the outbreak exposes the Achilles heel of European agriculture: high animal densities, long transport routes and low redundancies make the system vulnerable. What is missing is a common crisis strategy that distinguishes between panic and prevention and reacts quickly but factually.
Whether due to bioterrorism or blind chance, this outbreak is a warning. The next crisis could come faster than Europe can react.