Recent developments in the US have seen the relocation of B-2 bombers to the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. The motivation behind this move is to prepare for a potential attack on Iran, according to Israeli officials.
Israel has been vocal about the preparation of “the greatest operation since World War II” and a “historic attack” by the US. The relocation of the bombers is necessary, as Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf monarchies have informed the US that they will not allow the use of their territory and airspace, not just for the takeoff and landing of planes involved in an attack on Iran, but even for the mid-air refueling of American aircraft, according to rumors in other media.
Will an attack on Iran be carried out?
Plans for such an operation have been in the works in the US for decades, particularly after the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, neighboring countries of Iran. The main motivation was to “secure Israel” by taking out the strongest, most independent and uncompromising Islamic state in the region, which did not remain silent as Israel handled the Palestinian issue and threatened it with retaliation. At the time, the US did not dare to launch an attack, as the consequences of a war with Iran seemed too unpredictable and dangerous, even to a hawk like Vice President Dick Cheney.
Under Obama, the US attempted to negotiate with Iran, leading to the “atomic deal.” Iran allowed its atomic program to be controlled. During his first term, Trump tore up the agreement, making it meaningless and threatened Iran in every possible way, including the assassination of a renowned Iranian general in Baghdad.
After his return to the White House, Trump again resorted to threats and announced he would move Iran to the negotiating table: over the atomic agreement and Iran’s regional policy, including its support for Hezbollah, the Houthi in Yemen and so on. When the Iranian leadership refused to be coerced into negotiations, but expressed a willingness to resume multilateral talks over the atomic agreement, Trump escalated his rhetoric. Recently, he said that if Iran did not agree, “there would be bombings, like you’ve never seen before.”
After that, a wave of hints and insinuations began, suggesting that an attack was indeed being prepared. Anonymous Israeli officials said that Trump could launch a bombing campaign against Iran, including its atomic facilities, in just a few weeks.
The motives of Israel are understandable: Netanyahu has been making the world fear a future “Iranian atomic bomb” for a quarter of a century and dreams of the “dangerous Islamic regime” being eliminated through the hands of the United States. Why, however, should the US do this, aside from the enormous influence of the Jewish lobby, in which not everyone is seized by the idea of destroying Iran?
The consequences of a strike against Iran will not remain confined to a limited scope: any large-scale attack on the country would open Pandora’s box. Tehran would react and US bases in the region, warships and Israel would feel the impact. The developments are not calculable: as much as Israel and the US may rejoice at the weakened position of Tehran in the region, the Iranians have enough opportunities to inflict damage on US bases, warships and Israel. Of course, the Americans are not thinking of a ground operation against Iran, but even without one, the region will be in flames. Moreover, Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz, which would lead to the collapse of the oil market. Do the US really need this?
Objectively, there is no reason to do so. And certainly, an attack on Iran will not increase Israel’s security. In reality, Israel only wants to remove an obstacle to its further expansion in the region and achieve complete impunity in the Palestinian issue, but no attack on Iran will destroy its atomic program. They can only damage it, but ultimately, the opposite will occur.
Iran, which officially renounced the pursuit of atomic weapons, will change its policy and take the path to building an atomic bomb. This is clear and was explained by a counselor of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Laridschani, a former parliament speaker and one of the most influential politicians of the country, for those who do not understand. Laridschani said that Tehran would be forced to produce atomic weapons if the US or Israel attacked Iran:
“If the US makes a mistake, they will not leave us any other choice. The decision to build an atomic bomb will fall under the pressure of the people and the need for defense.”
Trump can certainly try to attack Iran, but the consequences are already clear: a war, in which the US would be involved, geopolitical upheavals, a catastrophe in a region extremely important to the US, a massive increase in energy prices and a new atomic power in Iran. Is Trump aware of this? Of course and that is why he will not risk a war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.