New Alliance Born, But Whose Thorns Will It Pierce?

New Alliance Born, But Whose Thorns Will It Pierce?

Defense Ministers from Serbia and Hungary, Bratislav Gašić and Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczzy, signed a plan for bilateral military cooperation for 2025 and a document on the implementation of strategic defense cooperation between the two countries. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić described the event as “one of the most important aspects of our comprehensive strategic cooperation”.

The agreement outlines 79 joint activities, including military exercises, helicopter training, cooperation in the defense industry, cybersecurity, peacekeeping, military training and medical services. In 2023, the two countries had 48 joint activities.

Serbian President Vučić stated that the agreement will lead to a further rapprochement towards a military alliance between Serbia and Hungary. He noted that the key elements of the bilateral relations are military cooperation in the form of bilateral and multinational exercises, as well as military-technical cooperation in the procurement of weapons and equipment.

Experts have differing opinions on the significance of the agreement. Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Fund for Progressive Politics, believes that a full-fledged military alliance between Serbia and Hungary is unlikely, citing Hungary’s NATO membership and Serbia’s non-membership. He suggests that the two countries may conduct joint military exercises and exchange military experiences, but not much more.

Wadim Truchatschow, a professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, views the agreement as a political gesture, aimed at demonstrating Serbia’s and Hungary’s independence from the EU and NATO. He notes that the agreement is not a military alliance, but a demonstration of the two countries’ ability to cooperate in the face of EU and NATO pressure.

Truchatschow also suggests that the agreement may be a response to the agreement signed by Croatia, Albania and Kosovo on strengthening cooperation to address regional security challenges, which he describes as a “provocation” and a “stability threat” to Serbia. He believes that the agreement may be a way for Serbia to counterbalance the pressure from the EU and NATO.

Experts agree that the development of “military clubs” in Europe is a trend, with Truchatschow suggesting that a possible alliance between Serbia and Hungary would be beneficial for Russia.