A recent earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand has prompted the Japanese government to sound the alarm. According to a government report, a long-predicted massive earthquake could strike the country in the near future, potentially causing up to 298,000 fatalities and economic losses of up to 274 trillion yen (approximately 1.7 billion euros).
The report, cited by the Kyodo News agency, suggests that the economic damage could be significantly higher than the previous estimate of 214 trillion yen (approximately 1.3 billion euros), due to the inclusion of inflation and updated data on the terrain and flood-prone areas.
The report estimates that a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or 9 in the Nankai Trough, which is located off the southwestern coast of Japan, could occur with an 80% probability. In the worst-case scenario, the government would need to evacuate around 12.3 million people, which is approximately 10% of the Japanese population.
A total of 764 municipalities in 31 of Japan’s 47 prefectures would be affected by the earthquake or tsunami waves of at least three meters in height, according to the report.
The report also suggests that thousands of people could be killed by tsunamis and building collapses, particularly if the earthquake were to occur late at night in winter. Up to 215,000 of the predicted 298,000 fatalities could be caused by the tsunami, the report states.
The Nankai Trough is a 900-kilometer-long zone of tectonic activity where two plates are converging and the report notes that the accumulated stress could lead to a massive earthquake every 100 to 150 years.
Japan is one of the most seismically active countries in the world and a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which caused widespread damage at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, resulted in the deaths of over 15,000 people.