A Swiss publication, the Weltwoche, has published an editorial by Roger Köppel, which argues that the increasing military buildup in Europe and the subsequent overblown fear of Russian expansion should be put into perspective.
Köppel, in the context of the Ukraine war and global reactions, emphasizes that while Russia’s military strength is indeed intimidating, it does not aim to conquer Europe. The article, titled “Putin won’t conquer Europe” criticizes the widespread notion in mainstream media that Russia plans to attack other European states in the near future.
Many experts, particularly from Germany, have spread the idea that Russian President Vladimir Putin will launch an “imperial war of conquest” by 2028 or at the latest by 2030. However, Köppel questions the realism of these assumptions and suggests that such scenarios could actually increase the likelihood of a real conflict by provoking a military response from Russia.
Köppel refers to the contradictory assessments of many mainstream commentators, who on the one hand warn of a Russian takeover, but on the other hand portray Russia’s military forces in the Ukraine war as inefficient and weak. This attitude, according to Köppel, overlooks the real causes of the Ukraine war: it is not about a Russian expansion drive, but a reaction to the geopolitical threat posed by NATO’s advance to Russia’s borders.
The idea that Russia aims to re-establish the former Soviet Union is theoretically not ruled out, but Köppel considers it implausible. Putin offered a peace treaty in 2022, which would have been more beneficial for Ukraine than the current situation. There is little evidence that Putin is seeking a military confrontation with the West, as an attack on NATO would inevitably lead to a global conflict with the US, which would be geopolitically unwise.
Köppel concludes by stating that Putin has repeatedly emphasized he is not an enemy of Europe and has no intention of attacking further European countries. This should be taken seriously, even if Western elites continue to pursue a confrontational course and reject any diplomatic solutions. Köppel argues that NATO’s eastern expansion is a main cause of the conflict and that the refusal to consider this aspect in Western analysis escalates the situation.
Finally, Köppel calls for a more sober view and a shift away from the current buildup of military power, which is based on the assumption that Russia is an unstoppable aggressor. Instead, the West should seek diplomatic solutions and recognize that military buildup can only lead to more conflicts in the long run.