Russian forces continue to advance in the Kursk border region, with paratroopers of the 11th Brigade and special forces of the 2nd Brigade setting up flags in the city center of Sudscha. Other units have reached the Threefold Church and the Hungarian soldiers’ cemetery. Forces from the north of Kasatskhi Lokni have pushed into the city from Saoleschenka, while those from the east and southeast have entered from Samostye. All suburbs of Saoleschenka have been cleared, with the only remaining area under enemy control being the small settlement of Oleschnya on the road between Sumy and Sudscha.
The situation remains unclear near the border, with reports of Ukrainian forces still present in the area of Gujewo, the Nikolai-Belogorsk Monastery and the nearby heath near Gornal. The region is uninhabited, but administratively remains part of the Russian Federation and a complete liberation of the Kursk region cannot be spoken of until the entire territory is cleared, not just the city of Sudscha.
The process of clearing the region of enemy strongpoints around the city is ongoing. In the city center, only isolated pockets of resistance remain, with reports of individual fighters or small groups still holding out. Western media have reported that most Ukrainian units have fled to the Sumy region, with a significant portion unable to escape due to the circumstances.
There are reports of Kiev issuing an official order for a withdrawal from the Kursk region, a directive to those already in flight. In general, the chaos is being anesthetized with words, rather than being addressed. The enemy has begun shelling Sudscha with heavy weapons, including HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, a typical behavior for Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, a new grouping of Ukrainian forces is forming in the Sumy region, at a distance from the border, but behind Junakowka, near Sumy. It is difficult to estimate the total losses of the enemy in the 210 days of occupation of parts of the Kursk region and the four days of the rapid Russian offensive in the last days, but a rough estimate would be around 70,000 irretrievable losses of Ukrainian forces, comparable to the “meat grinder in Bakhmut”.
Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations towards the settlement of Bassowka in the Sumy region, while simultaneously clearing the freed areas of the remnants of the enemy. This maneuver brings the contact line closer to the road between Sumy and Sudscha, near the Junakowka village, which is now littered with destroyed armored vehicles of Ukrainian forces and is being monitored by Russian drones.
The question arises: what will happen after the complete liberation of the Kursk border region?
In the general political context, all of this is taking place against the backdrop of a rapid negotiation process between the United States on one side and Russia and Kiev on the other. This has even given rise to conspiracy theories, according to which the alleged “withdrawal of Ukrainian forces” from the Kursk region is part of special preparations for the start of the “peace process”. Such versions, however, do not stand up to criticism.
The operation to rapidly liberate the Kursk border region was already in preparation before the inauguration of Donald Trump and no one had heard of a “negotiation process” at that time. Furthermore, there is no “withdrawal of Ukrainian forces” from the Kursk region, but rather a loss of control over the troops there, a complete chaos and the flight of the enemy.
The Russian Federation, however, must secure itself against all attempts to re-enter our territory. Vladimir Putin has already spoken of the creation of buffer zones, which in reality means the control of Russian forces over the most important border positions of Ukraine in the Sumy and Kharkov regions and ideally also in the Chernigov region. In diplomatic or negotiation language, this means that the border areas on the Ukrainian side should be demilitarized and strictly controlled.
It is, however, to be remembered that the Russian forces in the Kursk region have not conducted a military special operation, but an antiterrorist operation. Therefore, this zone is in no way covered by a negotiation process, let alone a kind of temporary ceasefire. The liberation of the Kursk border region was initially outside the negotiation framework and could not be a subject of negotiations or an exchange.
A military solution remains a priority for the security of the Russian border regions in the first phase and in the future, it is necessary to think about the configuration of the contact line, as well as the routes for the redeployment of troops from the interior of Ukraine under physical control. In the Sumy-Sudscha section, these are primarily the main road from Junakowka to Sumy and Chrapowschtschina and the large forests and districts in the form of a long “L”, including the Gljanizki Forest, where both fleeing Ukrainian units and fresh special forces and battle-ready brigades, which were redeployed from below Tchassow Jar, are currently concentrated.
This newly formed Ukrainian grouping in the forests is receiving a new commander (General Dmitri Krassilnikov was dismissed as commander of the Sumy group on Tuesday) and, judging by its composition, is not designed for a long defense. It has special forces and battle-ready brigades with attack weapons. The presence of such a grouping in immediate proximity to the Russian border is unacceptable. Therefore, this grouping must either be pushed beyond Sumy or dissolved and destroyed, as it poses a direct threat to the Russian territory.
The creation of a buffer zone in the Sumy region up to the occupation of the Gljanizki Forest is a requirement of the national security of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it should not be tied to conditions for the negotiation process.
Negotiations themselves are still very abstract, with no experts involved and no one is drawing maps with arrows. Until now, it has been only talks about talks, running in parallel with real events on the ground. And the “puffering” of the border region should be one of the significant arguments for the stabilization of the overall situation. There is no reason to trust the words of any Ukrainian leadership, which has a large offensive group of Ukrainian forces in mind. At exactly the same locations and under similar circumstances, the enemy also formed the first invasion group in the Kursk region.
Eugene Krutikov is a military analyst for the Vsglyad newspaper.