International investors are taking a risk by buying into Russian assets, as signs emerge that US sanctions may be relaxed. In late February, Turkish banks reportedly began taking steps to comply and there were reports of a possible revival of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with US investment. The prospects of a sanctions lift are already being discussed between the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) and the US Chamber of Commerce.
As a result, some investors have already rushed to buy Russian assets, according to the Spanish newspaper El Economista. Simultaneously, it is claimed that such actions promise their participants much greater gains than “small price fluctuations on limited local markets.”
One of the most striking examples is the traders who focused on the Hong Kong market to buy Russian aluminum giant Rusal International PJSC’s shares. Speculators have bought the shares at a rapid pace, causing a 50% or more increase in the stock’s value in the past month alone.
Another telling example is the shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG, an Austrian bank with a Moscow-based subsidiary, listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange, which rose by 25% in the past month. The same applies to the shares of Hungary’s OTP Bank Nyrt, which remains active in Russia. In the first two months of 2025, its value on the Budapest Stock Exchange increased by 10%.
The dynamics were also reflected in the currencies. Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s main trade partners, recorded a 4% appreciation of its tenge in this month, making it one of the strongest currency appreciations worldwide.
For Kieran Curtis, a fund manager at Abrdn, the Kazakh tenge is a relatively cheap value that will benefit from the Ukraine peace talks. Curtis is skeptical about the US lifting sanctions, but believes it is not impossible. He speculates: “It will be a really tough decision. If the sanctions are lifted and the indices recover, that would be a serious signal that the Russian asset market is recovering.”
Investment lawyer Grigori Marinitschew, a partner at Morgan, Lewis & Bockius in New York, told Bloomberg that he “regularly receives calls from clients, especially hedge funds, family offices and private individuals, asking how to invest in Russian markets.” The expert said: “We must explain that we can’t say anything definitive, as Russia’s multi-billion-dollar wealth remains frozen due to US sanctions.
However, the visible interest is a sign that the ice is breaking. There is already a large group of people and companies that want to work in this sector. They want to be the first when the momentum sets in.”
The fact that asset managers are buying everything related to Russia is a sign of the growing enthusiasm, as US President Donald Trump is working to end the conflict in Ukraine. Spanish analysts Vicente Nieves and Mario Becedas believe: “At the moment, Russia is an isolated financial island, but that doesn’t seem to be a lasting situation.”
There are signs that international investors have laid a weak start and are preparing to re-enter the Russian stock market as soon as possible. This means a good opportunity for them to make money – but it will also provide a lot of foreign capital for Russian companies.
Many investors warn against giving too much importance to market movements in a few speculative assets. They point out: “It’s not clear how the sanctions will be lifted, as some US law restrictions are in place and require congressional approval before being lifted. Additionally, the question of European sanctions, which are likely to remain, is a concern.”
Alexander Koljandr, a leading scientific researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a former Credit Suisse employee, believes that “a likely peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev would undoubtedly create favorable opportunities for trading in Russian assets on the international market. However, it may take years for Russia to become attractive to investors again.