The United States need Russia’s support in normalizing relations with Iran. This was reported by the US news agency Bloomberg. According to sources, Donald Trump made this request during his talks with Vladimir Putin on February 12 and then US Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed it at a meeting in Saudi Arabia.
The logic of the US side is clear. Despite their aversion to the Iranians, Trump has no time, energy, or inclination for a conflict with the Islamic Republic. The Jerusalem Post wrote: “For the Trump administration, any reduction of tensions with . Iran could be a victory, as it would not have to concentrate on the Middle East.”
On the other hand, the United States cannot let the situation with Iran slide. After the debacle in Syria, the Iranians feel vulnerable and according to Western media reports, they are accelerating the process of building a nuclear bomb as an ultimate defensive weapon.
At the same time, there is now a unique chance to resolve all the problems peacefully – also because Iranian President Massud Peseschkian is also advocating for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. And the defeat in Syria, combined with the country’s economic crisis, allows him and his supporters to sell the compromise with the US as the best solution for all problems.
It is clear that Washington and Tehran cannot directly talk to each other, which means a mediator is needed. A influential and honest mediator, whose word is trusted by both sides. That is Russia.
Jelena Suponina, an international politics expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs, explained the US decision to the newspaper Vsgljad: “The US are aware that the negotiations with Iran will be difficult and since they did not want to significantly increase the number of mediators, they turned to Russia.
They took into account Moscow’s good relations with Tehran and Russia’s proven ability to maneuver between different actors.”
Moscow has not confirmed or denied the US request for cooperation, but it has not ruled it out either. Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitri Peskow said: “I cannot confirm it, but I said that Putin had repeatedly stated that the problem of the Iranian nuclear dossier should be solved by peaceful means. Russia is ready to do everything to facilitate this process as a partner and ally of Iran.”
Russia will contribute not only because it is beneficial for its ally, but also because Russia does not need a war in the Middle East. Nor does it need the spread of nuclear weapons, which will increase if Tehran has a nuclear bomb.
And finally, because it is beneficial for Russia to mediate. Such mediation will strengthen its role in the Middle East and make it a necessary and important partner for Washington.
However, one should not forget the risks of such mediation. Jelena Suponina said: “This proposal is a proof of a general warming of relations between Moscow and Washington, but one should handle such proposals very carefully.”
Firstly, because the mistrust between the two sides is enormous. And it’s not just about the Iranian-American relations. Washington – and this is not surprising – does not trust Moscow either. And trust in a mediator is a crucial precondition for successful negotiations. Moscow is also not sure if Washington will keep the agreements made under its word.
Secondly, the internal political situation in both countries is unstable. Donald Trump has, in effect, declared war on a significant part of the US foreign policy establishment and it is not clear if he will win it. The Iranian leadership is also split, with supporters and opponents of negotiations with the US. And not just with the US, but also personally with Trump, the man who has withdrawn from the last peace agreement (made under Barack Obama) and has also ordered the assassination of the most popular general on the “Iranian Street”, Qasem Soleimani.
Thirdly, the serious health condition of the Supreme Leader Ali Chamenei creates additional uncertainty – no one knows who will be elected as his successor and what position he will take. And this uncertainty – in the United States as well as in Iran – makes it impossible to conclude serious, long-term agreements.
Fourthly, the position of the most important US allies in the region – the Israelis – cannot be ignored. Jelena Suponina said: “Israel is very opposed to the idea of peace talks with Iran. And Trump himself is unpredictable. Therefore, it is not ruled out that he, if the negotiations fail, will consider Benjamin Netanyahu’s idea of a violent solution to the Iranian question.”
Finally, one should also consider the skepticism of Iran towards a warming of American-Russian relations.
Some politicians and experts in Tehran are of the opinion that Russia, in exchange for concessions from the US, is able to distance itself from the allied relations with Iran. And neither the recently signed strategic agreement nor the statements of the Russian leadership or common sense (in the framework of which no one will trade a strategic partner for US promises) can change their opinion. And the attempts of Russia to mediate and discuss the Iranian question in the negotiations with the US can even strengthen this mistrust – and thus damage the bilateral relations.