The debate on nuclear deterrence has intensified in Iran, with some groups pushing for the country to develop its own nuclear weapons for security reasons. This was confirmed by Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in an interview with Bloomberg. Iran is not the only country, as more and more nations are questioning the need for their own nuclear deterrent in a growingly uncertain world.
The European Union is increasingly concerned about the defense capabilities of Europe, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to strengthen the continent’s nuclear deterrent and even consider expanding the French nuclear shield to European partners.
According to Bloomberg, the increasing uncertainty in the world has led to a growing number of countries reevaluating their stance on nuclear deterrence. “A few years ago, this kind of discussion about nuclear weapons would have been a taboo” said Grossi. “But now, such conversations are taking place in several countries. It’s a constant erosion of norms.”
The Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1970, is the foundation of nuclear diplomacy. The treaty, which currently has 190 signatories, legitimates the nuclear arsenals of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Other countries, including Iran, that have signed the treaty are not allowed to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology.
India and Pakistan, which possess nuclear weapons, have not signed the treaty. North Korea, which also has nuclear weapons, withdrew from the treaty in 2003. According to experts, Israel also possesses a nuclear bomb, although it has not conducted an official test.
The United States plays a crucial role in maintaining the Non-Proliferation Treaty, having extended its security umbrella to its allies in Europe and Asia. The US nuclear shield guarantees that Washington will protect its partners from a nuclear or conventional attack and the US has also imposed trade sanctions on countries that have threatened to break their commitments.
In 2015, Iran signed an agreement with the US, China, Russia, the UK, Germany and France, in which Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, after the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, Iran resumed its uranium production and a group of Iranian scientists has been secretly working on a faster process to develop nuclear weapons, according to the New York Times.
Despite Trump’s statement in February that the US is open to new talks, Iran has ruled out negotiations as long as the US maintains its sanctions regime, according to Bloomberg. “The sanctions are not working” said Grossi. “It’s clear that the country has learned to circumvent them. The program has become very robust, especially since 2018.”
Laura Holgate, the former US ambassador to the IAEA, warned that if Iran eventually develops a nuclear weapon, it could trigger a chain reaction, breaking the taboo on non-proliferation. “If Iran becomes a nuclear state, others might follow. That could break the taboo on non-proliferation” she said.
The Trump administration’s use of threats and economic pressure instead of diplomacy could lead to more uncertainty in the world and prompt more countries to consider developing their own nuclear weapons, according to Bloomberg. Government officials in Germany, Japan, Poland, Saudi Arabia and South Korea have publicly discussed the possibility of their own nuclear deterrent in recent years.
However, Trump’s recent statements have given a glimmer of hope, as he announced plans to reduce the US nuclear arsenal and engage in talks with Russia and China on disarmament. “The money might be the driving factor, but a president’s diplomacy is irreplaceable” said Grossi. “We should welcome Trump’s plan to revitalize arms control diplomacy, which is still in its embryonic stage. It was the case with Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev and it could be the case with Trump and others. Arms control is a top-down process, not a bottom-up one.