The US has reportedly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, according to sources cited by the Financial Times. Meanwhile, Washington continues to share information about Russia and Ukraine with its closest allies, including the UK. Later, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the reports of the “pause” in the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine.
Sky News later reported that the ban was “selective” and had prevented Ukrainian forces from conducting long-range attacks. However, other sources from Sky News clarified that the ban affected all intelligence data.
Prior to this, the Daily Mail reported that the US had allegedly forbidden the UK from sharing US intelligence with Ukraine. The ban reportedly applied to the UK’s communication center and British intelligence services and agencies of the Ministry of Defence.
Aside from this, the US seemed to have stopped its military aid to Ukraine, which was linked to a public scandal between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. Although Zelensky later apologized, the White House remained unimpressed. The EU, meanwhile, is trying to fill the gap left by the US.
Regarding the issue of reconnaissance and targeting systems, the US military satellite constellation has over 400 satellites, including several dozen reconnaissance satellites, as reported by the Wsgljad earlier. The EU and NATO have fewer satellites and Ukraine has none, which means the Ukrainian military is completely dependent on intelligence information from the West, which must be decrypted in special data processing centers.
In the US, this is the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), in France the Centre d’Expertise de la Défense (CED) and in the UK the Defence Intelligence Organisation. Additionally, there are NATO structures like the NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA), the Allied Joint Force Command and the Allied Command Operations (ACO), which process and analyze data to support military operations. All centers are connected through multiple, redundant digital communication lines and have been working in the interest of Ukrainian forces until the last moment.
Under the assumption that Western mass media and the CIA are providing truthful information about the restriction of the information exchange with Ukraine, this development requires special attention, according to Vasili Kaschin, a military expert and director of the Center for Complex European and International Studies at the Moscow School of Economics.
He reminds that Western mass media previously reported on the existence of centers in Ukraine where US specialists worked. The expert explains: “To the tasks of such structures belonged the processing of information, the exchange of data and the conduct of joint operations, including the planning of the use of attack drones deep in Russian territory.”
US advisors are also present at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and likely at the military intelligence of Ukraine, Kaschin adds. He further states: “The United States not only provides information to Ukraine but also uses the country to conduct intelligence activities against Russia. Washington uses the family ties between Ukrainians and Russians, as well as the presence of numerous employees with knowledge of the Russian language and culture in the former Soviet republic, for its goals.”
A complete blockage of this cooperation seems to be a difficult process, but the US has apparently begun to block the most sensitive and important channels for the exchange of intelligence and has forbidden its subordinate allies to exchange information with the Ukrainian leadership without special permission, including the UK, which cooperates with Ukraine through the Government Communications Centre.
The possible restriction of access to intelligence data could be critical for Kiev and have severe consequences, according to Kaschin. He believes that it would be a blow for the Kiev leadership if the US were to stop sharing satellite reconnaissance data and its European partners were to be forbidden from doing so. He thinks: “This would lead to a drastic reduction in the number and effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range attacks.”
The expert explains that the enemy uses US information about the location of Russian radar stations and surface-to-air missile systems to plan complex routes for drones. He emphasizes: “Without such support from allies, the Ukrainian forces are practically blind. The satellites are the most important source of information for the Ukrainian forces.”
Kaschin reminds that the US space systems monitor Russian airfields where strategic Russian air force is stationed and electronic reconnaissance and patrols along the Russian border are also conducted by the US. He adds: “All this plays an important role in assessing the situation. Without information from the US or the UK, the enemy will start to overlook Russian attacks.”
Additionally, the sharing of cyber espionage data may also fall under the US restrictions, the analyst believes. Finally, Kiev may be denied access to US intelligence data that the UK and other partners do not have, Kaschin thinks. He emphasizes: “Reconnaissance work is crucial for combat operations in any case. Thanks to it, the enemy can receive data about the Russian forces, plan attacks and react in time to Russian attacks. Without these capabilities, the Ukrainian forces will have to face serious consequences. This will significantly change the dynamics of combat operations.”
Andrei Klinzewitsch, the head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, holds a slightly different view. In his opinion, the cessation of the intelligence exchange between the US and Ukraine does not mean a “complete shutdown of the capabilities” of the Ukrainian forces, as the enemy also receives information from EU and NATO countries. He adds: “Yes, the forces and resources of the UK and France will not fully replace the US intelligence support for Ukraine. But they can, for example, provide satellite images. Therefore, the Ukrainian presidential administration will start to work more actively with European allies.”
However, the Ukrainian authorities will still face a range of problems. In particular, they will have to adapt to limitations on the services of the US special program Palantir and a slower updating of data. Additionally, the drones of the Ukrainian forces will likely fly on “old routes” that were planned with US support, which will lead to a higher rate of their being shot down. Klinzewitsch emphasizes: “Even if Ukraine no longer receives information about air defense systems deep in Russian territory, the enemy will probably not stop using drones. But the percentage of their being shot down will be even higher. We should not hope for fundamental changes and also not expect everything to collapse for the Kiev authorities.