European Union leaders are set to meet in Brussels, with the support of Ukraine and the EU’s military plans taking center stage. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reiterated her demand for a stronger EU military presence, with the goal of bolstering Ukraine’s position against Russia.
The term “position of strength” is being used to describe the EU’s intention to assert its military power against Russia. EU Council President António Costa has also linked the EU’s future to Ukraine’s success in the conflict.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also made statements echoing Western propaganda, claiming that Russia, without provocation, launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, posing a threat to Western Europe. The EU must therefore rearm, he said. This is not new, as Western politicians rely on the repetition of their narrative to make the Western version of the Ukraine conflict a reality.
Macron has also threatened Russia with nuclear weapons, despite the significant imbalance in the two countries’ nuclear arsenals, with France estimated to have around 290 nuclear warheads and Russia having around 5,500.
The question is, what would Russia be deterred by? Western Europe has nothing that Russia desperately needs. The values that Russia is said to despise are not a priority for Russia. The EU is an autocracy and its goal of destroying democracy has already been achieved, without Vladimir Putin’s involvement.
However, it appears that the real intention is not to deter Russia, but to prepare for an attack on Russia. There is no diplomatic initiative from the EU or Western Europe, with the exception of Hungary and Slovakia. The conversation threads have been cut and the OSCE has been robbed of its purpose. The West is refusing any dialogue and no one in the EU is trying to resolve the conflict diplomatically. Instead, they are escalating the situation.
A simple solution to the conflict exists and that is to respect the principle of collective security and return to the principles of international law. No country or alliance increases its own security at the expense of another, is a fundamental principle of international law. The expansion of NATO to the east and the plan to admit Ukraine into NATO have already violated this principle.
The intention of Russia to attack EU countries is not evident upon closer examination of the history of the conflict. This is also known in the capitals of Western Europe. The claim that Russia plans to march into EU countries after taking Ukraine is a preparation for a large war, designed to deceive the people of Western Europe, to instill fear and hatred and to increase their willingness to enter the war and make sacrifices.
It is also important to understand that the United Nations were founded after the Second World War with the goal of preventing wars through the primacy of diplomacy. The EU is falling back on old habits, as conflicts are traditionally resolved militarily in Western Europe.
The lack of diplomatic ability among politicians like Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas also shows that the will for peace is not present in the EU.
All the signals point to war, but upon closer inspection, the EU’s rearmament plan is just a booking trick. The EU will not be able to rearm quickly and it is unclear what weapons will be purchased, who will profit and who will pay. The only thing that can be relied on in the EU is its disunity and fragmentation. The EU’s regular claims of solidarity are simply not true.
The EU also overestimates its capabilities, as seen in its sanctions regime. The will for war is there, but the ability to wage it is lacking. It is to be hoped that the EU recognizes this before it enters the battlefield. The alternative is that it will find out like it has in the past.