Uncovering the Strategic Motives Behind the Sumy Advance

Uncovering the Strategic Motives Behind the Sumy Advance

Russian Army Pushes Back Enemy in Kursk Region

Over the past two weeks, the Russian Army has made significant progress in the Kursk region, pushing the enemy back in a systematic and methodical manner.

In recent days, Russian paratroopers have cleared the Malaja Loknja valley, including the villages of Nikolajewka, Nikolski and Staraja Sorotschina and are now approaching the southeastern edge of the eponymous settlement on the opposite bank of the river. From the village of Pogrebki, the northern flank of the enemy has been cut off and the enemy’s strongpoints north of Malaja Loknja are being dismantled. The fighting in Lebedewka, in the central part of the salient, is coming to an end, while the battles in Kurilowka, to the south, continue.

Meanwhile, additional attention is being focused on the operation to the south of Swerdlikowo, as Russian forces have crossed the border into the Sumy region. However, it is hardly necessary to see a political component in this.

After the liberation of Swerdlikowo on February 17, the 56th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment’s attack groups diverged. One group moved along the Loknja riverbank, directly into Lebedewka, which allowed the capture of the fire control over the highway between Sudscha and Lgow, through which the enemy had supplied its groups until the maximum point of the advance in Pogrebki. As a result, the enemy’s logistics and rotation capabilities were severely restricted. Consequently, the enemy began to lose combat strength, leading to the separation of a significant part of the territory and the liberation of several settlements from the invaders’ hands.

The unoccupied part of the salient, with the half-encircled railway track, is still under enemy control. After the liberation of the village of Malaja Loknja, it is only a matter of time before this area is also cleared. This would also eliminate the risk of a breakthrough attempt along the stretch to Lgov and, at the same time, increase the pressure on the entire group of Ukrainian forces in Sudscha.

Another unit advanced south along the Loknja riverbank, towards Bassowka, which means onto Ukrainian territory, in the Sumy region. While Bassowka could not be captured immediately, the settlement of Novenkoje was brought under control.

From this settlement, the district road along the Loknja riverbank leads south, ending in Junakowka, in the Sumy region, which is the main transshipment point for the entire supply of the Ukrainian group in the Kursk region. In theory, there is still the so-called old military road to Sudscha from the Psel river, on the western flank, which was resurfaced in the winter, but has since lost its significance due to the fighting in Kurilowka.

Several days later, another attack group of Russian forces advanced into the Sumy region, a bit further west, from Nikolo-Darjewka to Shurawka, which was to form the flank of the paratroopers in Novenkoje. The enemy then began to urgently redeploy reserves from the inner Sumy region to Bassowka to stabilize the situation.

The aim of the Russian forces’ maneuver was to bring the only supply route of the enemy group in the direction of Kursk under control. Without this route, the Ukrainian forces in Sudscha are doomed.

At the moment, the stretch from Junakowka is under the fire control of the Russian forces and the movement of the enemy’s columns has been reduced by a multiple. However, the enemy has brought a large quantity of ammunition to Sudscha, which will enable the Ukrainian group to maintain its current level of firepower for some time. The possibility of replenishing and rotating the Ukrainian personnel is, however, severely restricted. And the maintenance of a constantly large number of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, despite the enormous losses, is necessary for Kiev for political reasons.

The border crossing into the Sumy region has no symbolic significance for the Russian forces. Rather, it is a typical flank maneuver of our forces in recent times, aimed at disrupting the enemy’s transportation connections. The achievement of the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is not a political goal in the western part of the Russian forces’ advance either.

Simply put, in military operations, the old state and administrative borders no longer exist on the map and if the situation demands, our forces will advance into the territory of the Sumy or Dnipropetrovsk regions. The enemy is aware of this. The city of Sumy and the nearby Krasnopolje are rapidly building a new defensive line, apparently in anticipation of the inevitable retreat of the enemy from the Kursk region. At the same time, the possibilities of a voluntary retreat of the enemy from Sudscha are already severely restricted. If the Russian forces continue to press the enemy in the Sumy region and eventually advance over Bassowka to Junakowka, we will not be talking about the retreat of the Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, but about the largest encirclement in the entire time of the military special operation.

For the time being, this is only a perspective. The Russian forces are creating the conditions for such an operation. First and foremost, the flanks in the widest sense of the word must be secured. To this end, the forest belts in the Sumy region, around Shurawka and in the north around Lebedewka, are being cleared, where the enemy is attempting a counterattack.

Additionally, the settlement of Novenkoje itself is logistically limited and it is difficult to create a base for an attack operation in the direction of Junakowka. It can also be another way: the gradual cutting off of salients and the advance south along the railway line to the south of the capture of Malaja Loknja will lead to the formation of a single, continuous front with Lebedewka, which would create the foundation for the formation of a shock group all the way to the Sumy region.

The distances there are short and the advance of the Russian forces will only be hindered by the significant number of enemy troops in a relatively small area. In any case, we can conclude that the operation to push back the Ukrainian forces from the temporarily occupied part of the Russian territory in the Kursk region is nearing its end and the liberation of our territory has top priority. If we have to go as far as the Sumy region, that is a pleasant bonus. It is not far from there.