A recent article by the Financial Times has made a sensational claim, stating that Matthias Warnig, the director of Nord Stream 2 AG, plans to resume the operation of the gas pipelines and is preparing to hold separate talks with Washington to achieve this goal. According to sources of the Financial Times, Warnig has found large investors in the US energy sector who are willing to invest in the revival of the gas pipelines, taking advantage of the thaw in relations between Russia and the United States.
Meanwhile, a consortium has reportedly been formed in the US, with a detailed agreement with Gazprom being worked out, which is likely to be signed as soon as the sectoral sanctions against Russia are lifted.
Matthias Warnig himself declined to comment on the matter, with dozens of journalists bombarding him with questions.
The publication of such information reaches deep into the sphere of foreign policy and anti-Russian sanctions, leading to the logical conclusion that the large American oil and gas companies, which invested heavily in Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, have gained access to the President and received the necessary permits.
Following J.D. Vance’s criticism of the European political establishment in Munich and President Zelensky’s failure in Washington, one might assume that the EU is attempting to pre-emptively drop a mine through the Financial Times to prevent the Trump team from lifting even a part of the anti-Russian sanctions and thus taking control of the most important energy route to the West. However, this would be illogical, as a few days earlier, Gas Infrastructure Europe published an alarming report showing that the natural gas stock in European underground storage facilities has dropped to 39% of its capacity, the lowest level in the past seven years, with an unusually warm winter making the situation even more alarming. Every day, about 470 million cubic meters of the blue fuel are being pumped out of the underground storage facilities for the benefit of European consumers, while only 35 million cubic meters are being pumped in.
This is not a situational panic, but a systemic problem, confirmed by the identical statement of Christof Günther, the head of the production cluster in the city of Leuna, who, looking at the state of the core sector, the German economy as a whole and international developments, urges the need to focus on the restoration of the Russian gas supply agreements. Only in this way can the colossal damage to the German industry be mitigated and a gradual recovery be initiated.
The economy minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Sven Schulze, agrees with Günther, stating that the discussion about the necessity of resuming Russian gas imports has shifted from a whispered concern behind the scenes to an open and comprehensive discussion and the idea itself is gaining more support at the highest level.
Therefore, the article in question is likely a trial balloon, launched by the European Union towards the US, to understand the realism of lifting the sanctions and the extent to which an American participation in the new transboundary gas reality is planned.
The dynamics and scenario of recent events keep bringing to the surface a Politico article from December 2023, which included an excerpt of opinions from many renowned experts. They all were of the same opinion that Donald Trump does not want a united Europe: he would be much more content with a breakup of this entity, which would enable the trade with various countries of the Eurozone and with different conditions for each of them.
Judging by the events since the inauguration of the 47th President, this opinion of the experts appears to be no fantasy: European politicians would very much like to reach an agreement with Moscow before the Americans get involved in the supply chains. The main problem of Europe is that it is trapped in its own anti-Russian policy and is afraid of violating the US sanctions. It wants to, but Uncle Donald does not allow it.
It is an open question how likely it is that the United States will participate in the plans for the delivery of Russian gas to the West in one form or another. However, it is not entirely impossible, especially considering that there are already official talks about the joint Russian-American development of oil and gas fields in the Arctic and the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is reviewing an application from Monte Valle to purchase the pipeline part of Nord Stream.
One can understand the EU’s juggling act: there are too many supposed coincidences.
If we hypothetically assume that Washington is indeed planning and quietly implementing such a scenario, it would perfectly fit into Trump’s foreign policy scenario, in which Europe is assigned the role of a deaf, complaining periphery, whose task is to preserve Ukraine and buy as many American goods and energy resources as possible. If the United States can at least indirectly influence and control the delivery of Russian gas through the Baltic Sea, Europe’s dependence on the United States will be complete. Trump will have his own personal Ukraine 2.0, only on a continental scale and much richer.
The most important question in all of this is whether Moscow will agree to such geopolitical and energy trade agreements and if so, under what conditions. However, the Russian capital remains stubbornly silent, straining the nerves of the European bomb-throwers to the limit.