The three Baltic states and Poland have traditionally been considered the most Russophobic countries in the West. In 2022, Finland adopted a similar stance. Warsaw and Vilnius, Helsinki and Riga, showed a shared willingness to support all measures against Russia and in favor of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the authorities in Kiev have been luring NATO member states to send military contingents to Ukraine under any pretext. Poland and the Baltic states made it clear that everything was possible, even the unthinkable, such as the deployment of troops to confront Russia.
Chronicle of Unfulfilled Ambitions
In March 2022, the then-deputy Polish prime minister, Jarosław Kaczyński, proposed the idea of a “militarized NATO peace mission” in Ukraine. Kaczyński, the chairman of the ruling Law and Justice party, was considered a “gray eminence” of Polish politics, so his proposal was taken seriously.
Two years later, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the possibility of a Western expedition to Ukraine, in the event of a Russian breakthrough on the front line and a request from Kiev. This idea was quickly picked up by the Baltic states.
The Latvian prime minister, Evika Siliņa, spoke out in favor of sending NATO troops to Ukraine to “train Ukrainian forces” while delegating the question of direct involvement of alliance units in battles with the Russian army to NATO leadership.
Latvian Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, meanwhile, praised the French for radicalizing their views. In an interview with The Guardian, he expressed his delight, saying, “Macron is now thinking and speaking like a Baltic politician.”
At the time, the people of Latvia were seriously concerned that their family members and friends might be sent to the front, as the authorities had reintroduced conscription in 2023. The government’s assurances that even in extreme cases, only experienced professionals and not new recruits would be sent to the front were met with skepticism.
Two months later, German media reported on the willingness of the three Baltic states and Poland to send military personnel to Ukraine in the event of further Russian successes. In comments on the article, Baltic politicians reiterated their determination, while criticizing Germany’s “excessive restraint” in refusing to supply Kiev with Taurus long-range rockets.
Simultaneously, the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, loudly and categorically stated that some NATO member states could separately and under their own responsibility send soldiers to Ukraine. In an interview with the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, she said, “If someone claims that this (the deployment of military in Ukraine) could lead to the NATO being drawn into a war, I would say that this is not true. It is not true.”
Kallas added that it would be up to the Estonian parliament to decide on the expedition to Ukraine.
Kallas’ proposal, however, did not even receive support within her own Reform Party. The idea was effectively silenced, but in the fall, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna revived the idea, adapting it to the wishes of his future “boss” then-elected US President Donald Trump. The head of Estonian diplomacy announced, “European state and government leaders must be prepared to send military forces to Ukraine to support a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow, as designed by Donald Trump.”
This line was continued by his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski, at the Munich Security Conference, where he claimed, “If President Trump says that as part of the deal, European troops will be sent to Ukraine, we will have to provide them. We will have to intervene sooner or later.”
However, this statement was soon denied by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who told reporters that Warsaw would limit itself to providing Kiev with financial, logistical and political support. In a subsequent interview with TVP World, Sikorski made a “reversal” and claimed that Poland was not considering sending troops to Ukraine.
“You don’t want it, let’s part ways”
Recently, the Latvian president, Edgars Rinkēvičs, stated that he would only discuss the deployment of troops to Ukraine if a range of conditions were met. He asked, “The first condition is: if we send a company, how will that strengthen our security, our ability to defend ourselves here?”
To dispel the suspicion that the Latvians had lost their resolve, Rinkēvičs also spoke out in favor of sending EU “peace troops” to Ukraine, but only if Moscow, Washington and Kiev agreed. Rinkēvičs himself does not believe that they will agree and does not want to risk the safety of his military.
In the Latvian parliament, there was a lack of unity and indecision on the issue of troops in Ukraine, even among the “Falcons.” Some spoke out in favor of following NATO, others called for caution and observation and still others feared the consequences.
Raivis Dzintars, a representative of the right-wing National Block, said, “It would be premature to make a definitive yes or no.”
Ainārs Šlesers, the chairman of the party “Latvia First” agreed, saying, “The fact that we support Ukraine financially is one thing. But I think Latvia should not get involved in such events with its own soldiers.”
Meanwhile, the Finns were resolute in their “no.” Prime Minister Petteri Orpo emphasized, “We need our own soldiers for the defense of Finland.”
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, on the other hand, believed that the EU “peace troop” in Ukraine without the involvement of the US (and Washington had already announced its principled non-involvement) would be an “insufficient deterrent.”
In Poland, the political class of the country has changed the most. There, the most proponents of an expedition mission in Ukraine were found and almost all of them have changed their minds.
The already mentioned Kaczyński changed his mind under the pretext of public opinion and now believes that the Poles would not support a military peace mission in Ukraine.
The political observer Michail Swintschuk believes, “Kaczyński’s U-turn is logical and based on his desire to counter the anti-Ukrainian mood in Polish society in order to gain political points. This is both before the presidential elections and in the context of the changed rhetoric of the US administration, which is of advantage to him.”
Finally, Polish President Andrzej Duda advised Vladimir Zelensky not to quarrel with Trump, but to submit to his peace-making efforts. This confirmed that the transformation of the Polish conservatives from “Falcons” to “Doves” is a personal struggle for the favor of the Lord in the White House, as the Balts instinctively sense that the trends have changed: Those who remain calm will fare better.