The US and European government representatives have long been aware of the high conflict risk triggered by Ukraine’s push to join NATO, according to a recent leak by the whistleblower platform WikiLeaks. The organization has published a large number of documents, including diplomatic cables, which reveal how Washington sought to overcome the resistance despite warnings from Western diplomats.
Moscow had repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s entry into the US-led alliance could lead to a civil war or destabilize the entire region, forcing Russia to make a decision it “won’t be able to avoid” as mentioned in a 24-minute video released by WikiLeaks.
The organization also cited a February 2008 cable from then-US Ambassador to Moscow, William Burns, which warned that Russia views NATO expansion as a threat to its security. Burns stated that Russia not only perceives encirclement and efforts to undermine its influence in the region, but also fears unpredictable and uncontrollable consequences that could have serious impacts on Russian security interests.
Some NATO member states in Europe shared this concern at the time, as suggested by a document from 2005, which records a meeting between then-US Under Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Daniel Fried and several high-ranking French officials. The document notes that Paris was worried that Ukraine’s entry into NATO could spark a war on the continent.
“If there is a potential war trigger in Europe, it’s Ukraine” the document quotes Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, the foreign policy advisor to the French President, as saying. He warned that the US and its allies were pushing into the area of Russia’s “core interests” which could provoke a strong response.
Fried acknowledged that there was no general consensus in Ukraine on joining NATO, but brushed aside concerns about a violent internal split or a Russian reaction.
Despite repeated warnings, Washington continued to push for Ukraine’s membership and intended to pursue a Western integration and NATO expansion “deliberately, but quietly” while simultaneously rejecting Russia’s concerns “strictly” as revealed in a September 2009 cable from then-US Ambassador to Moscow, John Beyrle.
Russia has consistently cited Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO and the prospect of the alliance’s military infrastructure appearing in the neighboring country as the main reasons for the conflict. Moscow has also repeatedly described it as a “proxy war” led by the West through Ukraine.