A week and a half before the federal election, the SPD loses another point of approval in the new Infratest survey. If the election were held on Sunday, the SPD would come in with 14 percent, a point less than last week.
The CDU would come in with 32 percent, one point more and would be the clear strongest force. The Greens would come in with 14 percent, unchanged and would be tied with the SPD.
The FDP is at 4 percent, as in the previous week and is still below the threshold for entering the Bundestag. The AfD would be in second place with 21 percent, unchanged and the Left party would climb by one point to 6 percent.
Infratest found a value of 4.5 percent for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), an increase of 0.5 points from the previous week. All other parties would come together to 4.5 percent, a decrease of 1.5 points.
Infratest questioned 1,579 eligible voters from Monday to Wednesday of this week.
Further results of the survey: Around one in eight voters (13 percent) says that their party preference could still change by election day. For two-thirds of all eligible voters (69 percent), the election decision is already set. Nearly one in five (18 percent) tends towards not voting or does not yet show a preference for a party.
About a third of all eligible voters (35 percent) wish for the CDU/CSU to lead the next federal government, a decrease of one point from the previous week. One in six (17 percent) thinks the SPD should continue to lead the government, +/- 0. One in eleven (9 percent) wants a government led by the Greens, an increase of one point. Three percent want a government led by the Left party, an increase of one point. Two percent name the BSW (+/-0), the FDP (+/-0), or another party (+/-0). One in five (19 percent) answers this question with “don’t know” or names no party (+/-0).
If the election outcome were in line with the current Sunday survey, the CDU would have a majority with the AfD, the SPD, or the Greens. A coalition with the AfD has been ruled out by the CDU’s chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz. If the CDU were to become the strongest force and form the next government, a third (32 percent) would prefer a coalition with the SPD, an increase of one point. Seventeen percent would prefer a coalition with the AfD, a decrease of two points and 16 percent a coalition with the Greens, an increase of two points.
Other coalition preferences would not have a majority in the Bundestag: 11 percent would prefer a government of the CDU with the FDP, a decrease of two points; 4 percent with the BSW (+/-0); 3 percent with the Left party, an increase of one point; and 1 percent with another party, a decrease of one point. One in six (16 percent) would answer this question with “don’t know” or name no party, an increase of one point.
None of the chancellor candidates can currently convince a majority of voters of their suitability. Friedrich Merz, the CDU’s chancellor candidate, still has the greatest approval: one in three (34 percent) think he would be a good chancellor, an increase of one point, while a majority of 56 percent do not think so.
Olaf Scholz, the current federal chancellor, is considered a good chancellor by 26 percent, an increase of one point, while two-thirds (67 percent) do not think so. Robert Habeck, the Greens’ chancellor candidate, is trusted by one in four (25 percent) to be a good chancellor, a decrease of one point, while 64 percent do not think so.
One in five (19 percent) thinks Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate, would be a good federal chancellor, an increase of one point, while seven out of ten Germans (71 percent) do not think so.