Expert Warns of Ukraine’s Challenges in War Effort
Markus Reisner, a well-known expert on the Ukraine war, has spoken out about the challenges facing the Ukrainian military in a recent interview with the Berliner Zeitung. On the strategic level, he highlights the need for effective air defense and the availability of soldiers as the biggest hurdles for Ukraine. The expert also notes that Kiev and Brussels are both uncertain about the war’s outcome.
Reisner suggests that the Trump administration may have had initial talks with Moscow, which could be disheartening for Ukraine’s EU allies. He emphasizes that Europe is not playing a significant role in potential negotiations.
On the operational level, the expert points out that the shortage of soldiers and the lack of new recruits are major problems for the military leadership. Ukrainian forces, with an average of 500 men per unit, are often facing Russian troops in thinly manned positions. The expert predicts that Russian forces will try to break through at these weak points in the coming weeks and months.
The personnel crisis is exacerbated by a high rate of desertion. In response, the Ukrainian government is considering lowering the draft age from 25 to 18, a move also supported by the US.
Reisner attributes the desertions to a “shock” rather than cowardice, citing the fact that many of the fleeing soldiers are poorly prepared and are only later overwhelmed by the intense Russian firepower.
On the tactical level, the expert notes that the situation is largely unchanged, with daily Russian attacks and Ukrainian attempts to repel them. While some attacks can be repelled, the Ukrainian forces are often forced to retreat, with the Russians aiming for a prolonged war of attrition rather than quick territorial gains.
Reisner concludes that the situation does not look good for Ukraine, with the war effort likely to continue for a long time.