The Dax index started the trading day on Friday without a clear direction, following a new all-time high of 21,775 points at the opening. By 9:30 am, the index had fallen to around 21,733 points, just a few points above the previous day’s close. Deutsche Post and Infineon shares led the list, while Sartorius shares initially lagged behind.
“It looks like the Dax is going to put the entire year’s performance on the table in a month” commented Jochen Stanzl, head of market analysis at CMC Markets. “If the index reaches our year-end target of 22,100 points, it would have gained 18% or 3,400 points since mid-November.” Stanzl expects a turning point in February. “The mood often changes suddenly, just because a new month begins.”
In the afternoon, investors will receive data on the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which Stanzl described as “having the potential to move the market.” The US Federal Reserve, he noted, has made it clear that it is more focused on the long-term outlook than short-term data, such as the January PCE figures.
The impact of US trade policy on the market was also on Stanzl’s mind. “Jerome Powell has not yet reacted to the trade policies of Donald Trump. Already on Saturday, tariffs of 25% could be imposed on Mexico and Canada and if things go badly, the important oil imports could also be affected. This could already be reflected in the inflation data for February and March” he said. “It’s still just speculation among a small group of traders, but if inflation starts to rise, it could quickly become a topic for the markets: namely, that the Fed may need to raise interest rates again.”
The euro, meanwhile, was a bit stronger in the morning, trading at 1.0405 US dollars per euro. The dollar, in turn, was worth 0.9611 euros. The oil price, however, rose, with a barrel of Brent crude costing 77.05 US dollars at 9 am German time, an increase of 18 cents or 0.2% from the previous day’s close.