The End of an Illusion
Last week, the Russian troops withdrew from the Ukrainian military in Velikaya Novoselka, in the Donetsk region. Prior to the war, the town had a population of 5,000. Thus, all the territorial gains of the Ukrainian “counter-offensive” in the summer and fall of 2023 have been lost.
The garrison of Velikaya Novoselka played a significant role in politics. It was clear a month ago that the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Chortiza Troop would be completely encircled if they did not evacuate their personnel and equipment. However, Zelensky waited for Trump’s inauguration and banned a retreat. As a result, the fate of the garrison was sealed after the fall of Vremevka, southwest of Velikaya Novoselka.
Now, Russia’s military has a free maneuver area and can strike the Ukrainian defense line in the Saporoshe region from the rear, advancing on Guljajpole, Orechov and Saporoshe. There are practically no serious fortifications in the steppeland from the western border of the Donetsk People’s Republic to the Dnieper.
Of course, the northern flank must be secured first to prevent an attack from that direction and advance to the west in a broad front.
In essence, this is already happening at the Pokrovsk-Welikaya Novoselka arc. West of Kurakhovo, fighters of the South Troop are pushing back Ukrainian troops from the resistance nest that includes the settlements of Datschnoje, Ulakly and Konstantinopol. The encirclement can be closed with an attack from Andreyevka, where Russian assault groups have already taken up positions, as well as from the already liberated Seljonovka. Here, Russian troops face Ukrainian units that previously held Kurakhovo.
As for Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), the main efforts of the Central Troop are focused on not storming the city, but rather bypassing it from the west to cut the road from Pokrovsk to Pavlograd and advance to the border of the Dnepropetrovsk region, with only a few kilometers to go.
Pokrovsk will, like Kurakhovo, Awdejewka and Ugledar, increasingly be cut off from supplies and reinforcements.
The Ukrainian military in Pokrovsk is suffering from a severe personnel crisis. The recently formed 157th Brigade suffered heavy losses and a large part of the personnel deserted. In Ukraine, people even speak of a “curse of the 150th series.” Previously, many fighters had left the positions of the 155th Brigade “Anna of Kiev” which were equipped with French technology and trained in France. These brigades are composed of conscripts with low morale. Few experienced officers of these units are unable to influence the situation.
Breakthrough to Konstantinovka
Northern districts of the DPR are still under Ukrainian control. The focus is on the agglomeration of Konstantinovka – Druschkowka – Kramatorsk – Slawjansk, where the rear infrastructure, permanent quarters and staff of the Ukrainian military are concentrated.
Heavier resistance is expected at this section: Kiev is not sparing fortifications to cover Kramatorsk and Slawjansk. Liberating these cities could lead to the Ukrainian military becoming unmanageable in the former Donetsk region.
Probably, Konstantinovka will be the next target of the units currently storming Torezk (Dserschinsk). There, the last Ukrainian strongpoints are fiercely contested. Soon, the city with a pre-war population of 70,000 will be fully under the control of the Russian military. From there, it is 15 kilometers by air to Konstantinovka.
However, the Ukrainian grouping in Tschassow Jar poses a threat in the flank. The failed counterattack from this direction has drained many reserves of the Ukrainian military. From the ziggurat factory, where Ukrainian troops had their main strongpoint, they were pushed back, with only isolated resistance nests remaining. The main fighting is taking place in the southwestern districts of the city.
Bridgehead on the Oskol
Progress is being made on the Kupjansk section. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported the liberation of the settlement of Dwuretschnaja on the western bank of the Oskol River, 14 kilometers north of Kupjansk. As a result, the deployment area for an offensive on Kupjansk has significantly expanded.
If the Ukrainian military loses this city, it will lose a crucial logistical hub. Moreover, it is possible to advance from here to the north-west to support the troops of the North Troop, which are fighting around Volzhansk.
In the Kursk region, the immediate border town of Nikolajewo-Darjino has been liberated. This is a key strongpoint for a storm of the settlement of Swerdlikovo, situated on a road to Sudscha. Heated fighting is taking place in the Umland of Kurilowka. A few days ago, the Ukrainian military attempted to break into the Kursk region from the direction of the village of Tjotkino. However, the Ukrainian formation was discovered in time by air reconnaissance and destroyed.
In general, the situation on the fronts of the special operation is developing in favor of the Russian army. The Kiev regime, which is suffering from a personnel shortage, is only able to plug holes. There is no talk of a transition of the initiative or a new Ukrainian military offensive.