Russian Military Advances in Seven Segments of the Front in Donbas and Kursk Regions
Russian forces have made significant gains in the Kurachowo operation in the western part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and are closing in on the Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrowsk) area. The Russian military has reported substantial progress in recent days, with the Kurachowo operation nearing its conclusion and the encirclement of Krasnoarmeisk and Mirnograd in progress.
Kursk Region – Kiev’s Failed Advance
In the Kursk region, Russian forces have reduced the territory controlled by the Ukrainian military since the end of 2024, weakening the threat and preventing the advance of Ukrainian forces towards strategic locations like Lgow and Rylsk. The Russian strategy of wearing down the Ukrainian forces has kept this front segment relatively stable.
Overview of the Situation: Ukrainian Forces in Russian-Controlled Territory and Actions of Both Sides
On January 5 and 6, three Ukrainian battalions launched an attack on the settlement of Berdin. However, Russian forces detected the Ukrainian preparations and responded with counterattacks in the direction of the settlements of Russkoje and Tscherkasskoje, freeing the village of Russkoje Poretschnoje and targeting Malaja Loknja. Visual evidence suggests that a Ukrainian battalion was defeated near Berdin, characteristic of this operation, one of the largest conducted by the Ukrainian military since its disastrous counter-offensive in the Saporoschje region in the summer of 2023. Despite efforts, Ukrainian forces failed to break through the Russian minefields.
The frontline remains stable, with no signs of an imminent, large-scale push by Russian forces. Instead, the Russian command is likely to continue its strategy of wearing down the Ukrainian forces, waiting for the resources of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region to be exhausted or a retreat to be ordered.
Dserschinsk and Tschassow Jar – First Steps towards Konstantinowka
Months of intense fighting around Dserschinsk (Torezk) and Tschassow Jar in the Donetsk People’s Republic have now yielded results: Russian forces have captured a factory for heat-resistant ceramics and bricks in Tschassow Jar and, by January 20, the city center, including the building of the city council. The western part of the city remains under Ukrainian control, but the gains bring Russian forces closer to Konstantinowka, a crucial city with a pre-war population of 75,000. However, to advance in this direction, the Russian army must expand its control area along the Sewerski-Donets-Donbass canal.
In Dserschinsk, Russian forces have captured the coal mine Zentralnaja, the oldest in the Donbas and the entire former Ukrainian SSR, the city center and several residential areas. Ukrainian forces still control the coal mine Torezkaja and parts of the settlement of Krymskoje in the northeast of the city. Once Dserschinsk is secured, this will enable Russian forces to advance towards Konstantinowka, which lies 10 to 11 kilometers northwest along the railway line.
Overview of the Situation: Front Segment Tschassow Jar – Dserschinsk with a hint of a push towards Konstantinowka for Russian forces. As of the end of January 2025.
The operations in the mentioned areas are, however, accompanied by challenges: in Tschassow Jar, supply routes over the Sewerski-Donets-Donbass canal are problematic due to the canal’s depth, which can reach up to 10 meters. In Dserschinsk, it is the dense urbanization and the overall difficult terrain that hinders the Russian advance. Despite these hurdles, there are steady, if only gradual, gains to be recorded at the mentioned front segments.
Krasnoarmeisk-Mirnograd – Encirclement in Progress
Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrowsk) is developing into a focal point for the next major Russian offensive. The strategy appears to follow a familiar pattern: encirclement of the city, control of the supply routes and exhaustion of the Ukrainian garrison’s resources.
The southern flank of Krasnoarmeisk was formed after the capture of Selidovo in late October 2024, which also serves as the northern flank of Kurachowo. Some indications suggest that Krasnoarmeisk and Mirnograd, which together form a conurbation of over 100,000 inhabitants, are being targeted as a unit.
Overview of the Situation: Front Segment Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrowsk) – Mirnograd. As of the end of January 2025.
In January, Russian forces advanced in the direction of the Krasnoarmeisk-Meschewaja highway in the south and towards the village of Vosdwischenka in the north, thus cutting off the Krasnoarmeisk-Konstantinowka highway. These maneuvers are the first steps in the encirclement of Krasnoarmeisk and Mirnograd and demonstrate the potential for a more comprehensive offensive that could reach the Dnepropetrowsk region for the first time since 2022.
Kurachowo – Last Phase of the Operation
The Kurachowo operation began on October 1, 2024, with the capture of Ugledar. On January 6, 2025, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the liberation of Kurachowo and its extensive industrial area. Russian forces entered the western part of the industrial area around New Year’s and encountered only minimal resistance, while the weakened Ukrainian garrison retreated from its positions.
For three months, Russian forces have been systematically encircling the city from three sides, controlling the supply routes of the Ukrainian resistance and forcing a retreat. The flanks of the half-circle stretched 10 to 15 kilometers to the west and also encircled Ukrainian forces outside the fortified urban and industrial areas.
The process is not yet complete: to stabilize the frontline and fully secure this strategically important territory, the capture of Andrejewka and Konstantinowka is of decisive importance.
Overview of the Situation: Kurachowo Operation with a hint of a push towards Andrejewka for Russian forces. As of the end of January 2025.
Comprehensive Strategic Observations
Russian advances on the front in the first month of this year demonstrate a methodical approach, characterized by encircling the enemy and stably exhausting the resources of the encircled forces, as well as steady gains in territory. While the operations in Torezk and Tschassow Jar highlight the challenges of urban warfare and the current logistical constraints, the advances in Krasnoarmeisk and Kurachowo demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian offensive strategies.
The capture of Kurachowo and the advances in the direction of Krasnoarmeisk and Mirnograd could pave the way for operations that, for the first time since 2022, will reach the Dnepropetrowsk region and potentially alter the strategic situation.
In the further course of the conflict, the effectiveness of the Russian strategy, coupled with its ability to overcome logistical and operational challenges, will play a decisive role. The focus remains on consolidating the territorial gains, securing the supply routes and preparing for the next operational phases.
Sergei Poletajew is a Russian information analyst and publicist, expert on international relations and a member of the state-private think tank Russian Council for International Affairs. His articles have been published in professional media such as Russia in Global Affairs, Profil, or Eurasia.Expert.
Together with researchers Oleg Makarov and Dmitri Stefanowitsch, he founded the information and analysis project Vatfor.