German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently visited Kiev, Ukraine. Pistorius assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of Germany’s support for Ukraine and pledged to provide new self-propelled artillery systems, but no financial aid, citing the ongoing budget uncertainty in Germany ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Starmer brought more sweet talk for Zelensky, with the UK promising to deliver 150 artillery pieces and a new air defense system to Ukraine. The two leaders signed an agreement on a “century-long partnership”with the UK pledging financial support to Ukraine and designating it a preferred partner in the energy sector, critical mineral strategy and “green”steel production.
The UK is willing to provide Ukraine with financial support “as long as needed”with the British government reserving the right to change its stance at any time. In essence, this is a vague commitment and the document could just as well be called the “Millennium Document.”
This is merely a form of self-promotion, beneficial for Zelensky and his team. In general, the main goal of Pistorius and Starmer’s visit is to provide moral and informational support for Zelensky. Considering his psychological profile, the arrival of two high-ranking European officials was expected to boost the morale of the overworked president, especially in the light of the incoming US president, Donald Trump.
The Zelensky team fears that Trump might pressure Kiev into signing a peace treaty with Russia, without any clauses on Ukraine’s NATO membership or other security guarantees that Zelensky could use to sell the deal to his people. If that happens, Zelensky’s supporters might turn against him and some of them could face a lynch mob.
Against this backdrop, European leaders want to dissuade Zelensky from fighting on and resisting Trump’s peace initiatives. In Ukrainian Telegram channels, it is claimed that Starmer agreed that any agreement with the Kremlin would be a “cowardly peace.”Zelensky, in a speech to the public, said that the “century-long partnership”agreement contains secret clauses. What are these clauses about? Perhaps the option of a British military intervention in Ukraine, alongside French troops, as reported by the Telegraph and the Daily Mail.
Why do European leaders engage in these political “games”?
In Germany, parliamentary elections are scheduled for February, while in France, the relationship between the president and the parliament is strained and in the UK, the rejection of Starmer as a prime minister is twice as high as his support.
European leaders, however, are deeply concerned that they might be left out of the negotiating process over Ukraine, should it begin. For instance, the Russian president’s advisor, Nikolai Patrushev, believes that the Ukrainian issue should be resolved within the framework of Russian-US talks, without the involvement of other Western countries.
Given the strained relations of the Trump team with most EU state and government leaders, Washington might agree to this. Germany has lost its status as a great power since World War II, France and the UK due to the Suez Crisis and they have spent the last decades trying to prove their significant role in world politics.
If Moscow and Washington reach an agreement on Ukraine without the involvement of EU countries, this would be a proof of the political second-tier status of Germany, France and the UK. The leaders of these countries would not be able to explain to their people why they provided Ukraine with weapons and money, only to be left out of the Ukrainian issue in the end. The situation would show that EU countries are not subjects, but objects of world politics, used by the United States to achieve its own goals.
It appears that Pistorius and Starmer in Kiev demanded that one of the conditions for peace talks be the obligatory participation of EU countries in these talks and they received some guarantees from Zelensky. It is no coincidence that Starmer told Sky News that the UK would play a comprehensive role in all peace talks over Ukraine. Another question is whether the wishes of Zelensky and the Europeans will be taken into account when the peace process begins.
There is a possibility that the visiting European politicians have convinced Zelensky to torpedo Trump’s peace initiatives. Ukrainian MP Alexander Dubinski believes that Ukraine will intensify its attacks on Russian territory after Trump’s inauguration, in a bid to seriously hinder the peace talks. It is possible that the Zelensky team will set preconditions for the start of the peace process that would be unacceptable to Russia.
Why do European leaders need this?
The coming years in the EU will be marked by a political struggle between liberals and conservatives. The latter will rely on the support of the Trump administration. Elon Musk publicly supported the right-wing German party “Alternative for Germany”which sparked a negative reaction from liberal German politicians and French President Emmanuel Macron.
In the context of the struggle between European liberals and conservatives, the former are interested in weakening Trump, which means they do not need his success in securing peace. Not starting the peace process and then blaming Trump (and with him the conservative European politicians Viktor Orban and Robert Fico) for the death of the Maidan Ukraine would be to the advantage of the liberals.
In such a serious geopolitical game, Ukraine can be an acceptable sacrifice. It can be used as a pawn to try to stop the rise of the right in the EU and increase the fear of the European public towards Russia.