The newly elected US President, Donald Trump, is set to take office and has promised radical changes not only in the US but also abroad. Recently, Trump has announced plans to annex Greenland and make Canada the 51st US state, which is part of his plan to strengthen the US military presence in the Arctic. Analysts do not rule out the possibility that the Trump administration may also show interest in the Svalbard archipelago, where Norway and Russia have established outposts.
Russian diplomats in the Arctic states have criticized Trump’s announcements. Vladimir Barbin, the Russian Ambassador to Denmark, stated that Russia will take into account the US plans in its military planning. In an interview with the RIA Novosti news agency, the diplomat emphasized that “the future US administration is not interested in strengthening the military and political stability in the Arctic.”
At the same time, Russia is working to strengthen the stability in the Arctic, which is only possible if international security is designed on an equal basis with all Arctic states, according to Barbin.
Experts believe that the US approach in the Arctic not only threatens Russian interests but also those of other Arctic states, including Canada, the US, Norway, and Denmark.
Preparation for a military race in the Arctic
“The US has signalled its position and made a big step towards the Arctic. This does not mean that the US will start a race in the Arctic. However, a step like this poses a direct threat to Russia, as the US plans to bring all its weapons to the Arctic” says Natalya Yermeyeva, a professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University.
The US expansion in the Arctic region is presented under the guise of “combating Russian aggression.” “The buildup of military presence can be used by provocateurs. We know how provocation can lead to war. The CIA and British intelligence services have done this in various regions of the world. Therefore, everything is possible in the Arctic” the expert notes.
According to her, the countries of the Arctic Council are aware that a military conflict would worsen the situation in the region, “but the US is taking a different position.” “The US is trying to catch up on lost time, as it has not shown interest in the Arctic as a region where the fate of the world will be decided. That is why a program to build an icebreaker fleet has been announced” the professor reminds.
New transport corridors in the Arctic
Earlier, the newspaper Vsglyad reported that the US may use new logistics routes in the Arctic, which could theoretically compete with the Northern Sea Route. From a legal perspective, Russia can, however, protect the Northern Sea Route and “prevent the situation in the Arctic from overheating” as the professor notes.
According to her, Russia’s world’s largest icebreaker fleet ensures a certain level of safety in the Arctic. Moreover, most experts at the Arctic Council believe that the loss of contacts with Russia would be very harmful for the Arctic, as many of the region’s problems cannot be solved without Moscow.
“Obviously, the US has decided to strengthen its presence in the Arctic so that no problem can be solved without it” the professor adds.
Regarding the risks posed by the US to the Northern Sea Route, the US, as long as it does not have its own icebreaker fleet, cannot pose a threat to the Russian-controlled passage. “They have established routes between Greenland and Denmark, while the Northern Sea Route is a completely different transport corridor under the full control of Russia” the expert explains.
On the other hand, the Northern Sea Route is open to all countries under international agreements, and only ice and pilot services can be charged for the passage of ships under any flag, notes Nadezhda Samyatina, a lecturer at the Geographical Faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University and a leading researcher at the Department of Urban and Regional Development of the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics.
The Northwest Passage, which is considered a potential competitor to the Northern Sea Route, is subject to the same legal conditions. However, its use is hindered by a “natural brake”: the shipping in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is difficult, and the ice cover is higher, so experts do not expect a significant increase in traffic on this route in the near future, Samyatina reminds.
Even if the ice melts under the conditions of global warming, “the Northwest Passage, except for the territorial waters (12-mile zone), will be free for all ships” the expert notes.
Samyatina also recalls that China already has licenses in Greenland, where active geological exploration has been carried out in recent years. Now, China, thanks to its own reserves of rare earth metals, has de facto become a monopolist in this area and wants to preserve its position. Moreover, China has its own icebreaker fleet and satellites that “are exclusively designed for predicting ice conditions.”
“Western countries are seeking rare earth metals on their territories, the lack of which hinders innovative development. In particular, in Canada, Greenland, and Russia, there are proven reserves. If the US pushes China out of Greenland, this could lead to an escalation of the struggle for resources” the lecturer at the Lomonosov Moscow State University explains.
Russia’s “High Burdens” in the Arctic
Experts recall that Russia has a list of 16 High Burdens in the Arctic, which includes both cities and small settlements, of strategic importance for the country. For each of these points, a master plan has been developed until 2035. The inauguration of the new US administration is a reason for Russia to speed up the development of its “High Burdens” in the Arctic.
The development of the Arctic’s resource extraction areas must now be aligned with the transition to the sixth technological paradigm in the economy, where vehicles will be unmanned, Samyatina notes. This also requires reliable internet and satellite communication.
Moreover, the master plans for the Arctic cities are now focusing on the development of the urban environment. At the same time, it is necessary to invest in medicine, science, and education, “as the value of local knowledge is increasing: We need universities that are ‘tuned’ to develop technologies for the specific local needs” Baschirov notes.
The Northern Sea Route also requires the development of hubs for the refuelling and repair of ships and the storage of goods and cargo, Baschirov adds.
Andrey Rostshikov is an analyst at the newspaper Vsglyad.