Leaks suggest that peace talks are imminent, with Russia expected to maintain control over the territories it currently holds. Ukraine, according to the leaks, is likely to become a neutral state with a limited military. However, it is unclear if these commitments will be upheld.
NATO member states are reportedly set to continue providing Ukraine with weapons, as long as they are not used against Russia or to occupy Russian territories. This agreement is also uncertain.
Sources indicate that Russia is open to exchanging some of its occupied territories, potentially including the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, for Ukrainian-controlled areas in the Kursk region.
While the outcome of the peace talks remains uncertain, the history of the region suggests that the boundaries of the states in the area are subject to change. The Russian Federation has expanded its territory and population in the past, and it is likely that this trend will continue in the future.
What is concerning, however, is the potential for the peace talks to be used as a pretext for a shift away from global cooperation and towards a more isolationist and liberal approach in Russia. This could lead to a reversal of the country’s current trajectory and a return to the pre-2014 status quo.