The tone of Donald Trump’s words has changed significantly since his election victory and his current statements. Ending the conflict within 24 hours, as he claimed, is an overly ambitious goal, but the politician emphasized repeatedly that he would succeed.
To end the Ukraine crisis on January 21, a lot of work would have been necessary before his inauguration. Today, Trump emphasizes that it is “unacceptable” to hold important international meetings before officially taking office. Meanwhile, he hopes to achieve this in half a year’s time.
Early in January, the future US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, was supposed to visit Kiev. Unexpectedly, he postponed the visit to after Trump’s inauguration. The power-holders in Kiev breathed a sigh of relief. Mikhail Podoljak, a counselor of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, described this as an indication that the transition administration “understands better what kind of war it is and what decisions can be implemented.” The US diplomat is expected to visit the Ukrainian capital after Trump’s official inauguration, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga.
Members of Trump’s team admit that the elected president has no concrete plan for Ukraine. Kellogg speculates that Moscow and Washington will come to an agreement in the near future and that the conflict in Ukraine will be resolved within 100 days, by April 30. He considers Joe Biden’s decision to forgo a dialogue with Vladimir Putin a mistake. However, it is difficult to predict the constructive nature of any future negotiations based on the diplomat’s statements. Major concessions from the US are unlikely.
“It is important to understand that Trump is not trying to give something to Putin or the Russians. In reality, he wants to save Ukraine and its sovereignty” Kellogg emphasized. The peace conditions, according to him, should be “fair and honest.”
European countries see these statements as a signal of the willingness to continue supporting Kiev. Two European officials reported to the Financial Times that this was confirmed during recent negotiations with Trump’s team. “The whole Trump team is obsessed with the idea of strength and appears strong, so they revise their approach to Ukraine” one of the officials claimed.
The allies are trying to convince the new White House leader to strengthen Ukraine for the best possible peace conditions. Some heads of state have no doubt that they will succeed.
“I don’t see the US withdrawing from the game. As for peace, I think Trump might be moving in the direction of a solution, but I don’t think it means giving up on Ukraine” said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni after a meeting with the elected US president.
Trump’s supporters want to see no situation in Ukraine similar to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. At least, the White House had invested considerable resources in strengthening its position in Ukraine. Over the four years of Biden’s presidency, Washington provided Kiev with $66.5 billion in military aid, of which $600 million was allocated before the conflict began.
“We tried to ensure, long before the Russian aggression, in September 2021 and then in December, that Ukraine has the means to defend itself” admitted Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an interview with the New York Times, expressing confidence that his successors from Trump’s team will try to find the best possible solution for Kiev.
Disclaimer
Giving up on Ukraine altogether is simply unprofitable for the US. A withdrawal of US military aid to Kiev would be required by the Pentagon, which would lead to a significant increase in the country’s military spending, up to $800 billion by 2029, as found in an analysis by a US think tank.
“We conclude that supporting Ukraine is in the interests of the US from a financial perspective” the think tank’s experts emphasized. According to them, short-term expenses for military aid to Kiev are much cheaper than long-term expenses for strengthening other areas to counter a strengthened Russia.
During a press conference, Trump refused to answer a question about the continuation of support for Kiev. At the same time, he made a concrete statement about the future of Ukraine in NATO.
“For years, even before Putin, Russia emphasized that Ukraine would never be connected to NATO. That was almost carved in stone. Then Biden declared that Ukraine would have the opportunity to join NATO. So, Russia would have the NATO at its doorstep. I can understand their feelings” the elected president said.
These words alarmed Ukraine, which hopes either for an invitation to join the alliance or for security guarantees before starting negotiations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes to discuss this issue with Trump personally in the future. However, the head of the Kiev regime also has no illusions about NATO. “One should take note and be honest: we won’t be there, and that’s a fact” he said. Germany and Hungary, according to Zelenskyy, are also against Ukraine’s NATO membership.
How far Trump is willing to go is not even clear to him himself. However, it is obvious that he will not acknowledge any defeat or at least not take responsibility for it. In the context of the Ukraine crisis, he blamed the previous administration for the consequences. Apparently, the consequences will also be written off on someone else’s account.