Economic experts expect only a slight decline in inflation rates in the next four years, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, published on Tuesday.
According to the survey, the global average inflation rate is expected to be 3.9 percent in 2025. Even in the long term, the experts surveyed only expect a slight decline. They predict a global inflation rate of 3.5 percent for the coming year and 3.5 percent for 2027 as well.
“The inflation expectations remain above the inflation targets of many central banks” said Ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Greater interest rate cuts are unlikely in the face of these inflation expectations.”
For Germany, the experts predict an inflation rate of 2.4 percent in 2025, 2.5 percent for Austria, and 1.2 percent for Switzerland. Inflation expectations have particularly increased in North America. For 2025, the experts expect an inflation rate of 2.6 percent, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous quarter’s survey. The experts predict 2.8 and 2.9 percent inflation in North America for 2026 and 2028, respectively. The regions with the highest inflation expectations are South America and wide parts of Africa, where inflation rates of over 20 percent are expected.
The survey, conducted from December 4 to December 18, had 1,398 experts from 125 countries participate.