The new fleet emission limits for new vehicles, which will no longer allow combustion engines as of 2035, are expected to halt the increase in CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, according to a new study. “Our analysis shows that the European road transportation sector is at a historical turning point” said Felipe Rodríguez, deputy director of the European office of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), on Tuesday. “A decade after the Paris Agreement, Europe is now making the turn and shifting to technologies, particularly electric vehicles, that offer higher energy efficiency and significantly lower emissions.”
Historically, the transportation sector in the EU has been the only major economic sector where CO2 emissions have increased since 1990. ICCT’s projections suggest that CO2 emissions from road transportation will reach a peak of almost 800 million tons in 2025 and then decline by about a quarter by 2035. This accelerated decline marks a significant departure from earlier projections, the ICCT said, reflecting the impact of the transition from conventional cars to emission-free vehicles.
The falling CO2 emissions are contingent upon the maintenance of existing CO2 standards and could stall if the regulations are watered down. “A weakening of the current CO2 targets for car and truck manufacturers would put the decline of emissions at risk, increase the gap to achieving our climate goals on time, and undermine Europe’s role as a global leader for other regions” Rodríguez said.
Compared to a scenario based on the 2021 legal framework, the EU regulations introduced in recent years have closed 73 percent of the gap needed to put the road transportation sector on a course compatible with the Paris Agreement, the study found. The EU’s CO2 standards for 2023 and 2024 have significantly reduced the emissions gap: by 66 percent for heavy-duty vehicles and by 75 percent for light-duty vehicles.