Two months before the federal election, the research group Wahlen attests the Greens to still having untapped potential. “At the moment, the Greens are a choice for many right-wing voters of the Bühmann, who seems to me to have exhausted the mobilization against the Greens” said Matthias Jung, a board member of the research group Wahlen, to the “Tagesspiegel” on Wednesday. “In the mobilization of middle-class voters, however, the Greens still have potential.”
Due to the low popularity of CDU/CSU candidate Friedrich Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Jung expects a trend in favor of Habeck. “In the end, Habeck and the Greens can profit from the weaknesses of Merz and Scholz” the election researcher said.
Merz and Scholz focused as individuals and with their election programs on the core voter bases of their parties. “They leave a lot of unnecessary space in the political middle. Voters who don’t see themselves as conservative or left-wing could decide for Habeck and the relatively middle-positioning Greens” Jung said.
The probability of Merz becoming Chancellor after the election on February 23, 2025, is “quite high” according to Jung. “However, the case of a parliamentary majority without the Union could also occur.” The intense attacks from CDU and CSU against the Greens could lead to a possible numerical majority not being politically effective.
Merz has himself contributed a lot to his “mediocre image” which now makes broad support more difficult, the opinion researcher said. “He has positioned himself pointedly conservative and economically liberal, instead of playing the entire keyboard of the Union. He has unnecessarily narrowed the programmatic range that the Union always had” Jung said. “Therefore, the Union has a Merz problem.” In addition, there is a “certain lack of self-control” which is a danger for himself and thus for the success chances of the Union.
A lack of support for Scholz by SPD supporters makes the Chancellor “vulnerable” the board member of the research group Wahlen said. Scholz has the image of being slow, unassuming, and indecisive. He himself interprets himself as “measured.” However, “his sometimes intense emotional outbursts of the last time damage the remaining positive aspect of his image” Jung said. Moreover, the government led by Scholz has failed.