According to the weekly “Sunday Trend” data that the polling institute Insa compiles for Bild am Sonntag, the Union (CDU/CSU) has once again moved ahead of the AfD for the first time since September. In the most recent survey, the Union recorded 26 % of the vote-a net gain of one percentage point-while the AfD remained at 25 %.
The Left fell by one point, dropping to 10 %. The shares of the SPD (16 %), the Greens (11 %), the BSW (3 %) and the FDP (3 %) are unchanged from the previous week. Other parties together accounted for 6 %.
For a parliamentary majority, Insa chief Hermann Binkert says more than 44 % is required. With the current figures, a coalition of the Union and the SPD would reach 42 %, whereas a partnership of the SPD, Greens and Left would only reach 37 %. A Union‑AfD coalition, while theoretically able to secure 51 %, is regarded as politically unacceptable.
The “Sunday Trend” sample was drawn from 1 203 respondents surveyed between 23 and 27 February 2026.