In the week following the Baden‑Württemberg state election, Forsa’s weekly survey for RTL and ntv shows a noticeable shift in federal political preferences. The CDU‑CSU coalition gains a point, rising to 27 percent, while the AfD loses one point and falls to 23 percent, making the two parties’ positions clearer relative to each other.
The SPD, already weakened by its poor performance in the state election, slides to 12 percent, a drop of two points. The Greens increase by three points, reaching 15 percent and moving ahead of the SPD. The FDP falls below the 3 percent threshold and is therefore not listed on its own; the positions of the Left and BSW remain unchanged at 11 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
Concerning perceived political competence, the SPD falls sharply, now rated at only four percent. About 19 percent of respondents believe the CDU‑CSU coalition is most capable of solving Germany’s problems, while 11 percent credit the AfD. The Greens are rated at seven percent (up one point) and the Left at five percent. Overall, more than half of eligible voters-52 percent-express that no party can resolve the country’s issues.
The assessment of Chancellor Friedrich Merz shows little change. Only 25 percent of respondents are satisfied with his work, and 74 percent remain dissatisfied, leaving his standing weak.
The survey was conducted from 10 to 16 March 2026 and included 2,503 respondents.