The escalating tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and ongoing domestic protests have ignited a political firestorm, revealing diverging approaches within Germany and across the European Union. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of impending punitive tariffs against nations trading with Iran, German parliamentarian Norbert Röttgen, a prominent figure within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), voiced his support, characterizing the move as “a highly effective measure” designed to weaken the ruling clerical regime’s economic power.
Röttgen’s endorsement of the potential 25% tariffs underscores a hardening stance towards Tehran, suggesting that continued economic ties may become unsustainable for countries heavily reliant on trade with the United States. While acknowledging the potential impact on major oil importers like China, which currently receives approximately 80% of Iran’s oil exports, Röttgen dismissed concerns regarding significant repercussions for Germany or the EU. He noted a substantial decrease in German exports to Iran – dropping by 25% between January and November 2023 to €871 million, a figure comparable to exports to the microstate of Liechtenstein. This decline, Röttgen attributes in part to the recent re-activation of the “snapback” mechanism concerning Iran’s nuclear commitments.
Röttgen’s perspective extends beyond economic sanctions, advocating for increased transparency within the EU regarding member states obstructing the listing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. He expressed confidence in the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime, urging all member states to prepare accordingly. This assertive view contrasts with a more cautious response from within Germany’s Green Party.
Luise Amtsberg, the Green Party’s foreign policy spokesperson, lambasted Chancellor Friedrich Merz for what she termed “words without action”. While echoing Merz’s prediction of an impending political upheaval-stemming from the government’s assertion that the regime’s reliance solely on force indicates its impending demise-Amtsberg criticized the Chancellor’s speculative pronouncements, demanding concrete steps to safeguard Iranian citizens demonstrating against the current government. She specifically called for the restoration of internet access for Iranian civil society, enabling protesters to coordinate efforts and document human rights abuses.
Amtsberg further pressed for Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt to expedite the acceptance of human rights defenders and implement a moratorium on deportations. Merz’s previous statements, delivered during a trip to India, echoed Röttgen’s sentiments, predicting the final days and weeks of the existing regime.
The divergence in messaging reflects a broader debate about the appropriate level of engagement with Iran. While some, like Röttgen, advocate for a more aggressive approach leveraging U.S. economic power, others, like Amtsberg, prioritize the immediate protection of Iranian citizens and a more robust human rights-focused response. The unfolding situation highlights the complex political calculations involved in international relations, particularly as the West grapples with the evolving dynamics of the Iranian crisis and the potential for profound regional and global consequences.