The SPD’s Bundestag spokesperson for foreign policy, Adis Ahmetović, warned that the current escalation in the Middle East could trigger a new wave of refugees heading to Germany and the rest of Europe. He pointed to history, noting that wars in Iraq, Syria and Libya have all produced large movements of people across the region. While Europe is attempting to reorganise migration, the situation will become increasingly difficult.
Ahmetović cautioned that “millions of people” could flee toward Europe and questioned whether Germany and its neighbours are prepared for another “We can manage this” moment, expressing doubt that they are. He also noted the significance of Iran’s political upheaval: the death of its Supreme Leader, who had led the country toward crisis, marks a turning point. However, he warned that the outcome of Iran’s succession remains uncertain. A multi‑ethnic country of 90 million faces the risk of civil war, which could ignite a regional conflagration with direct implications for Europe.
The SPD figure also linked the conflict to broader geopolitical chess. He said President Trump expects the war to pressure China into a deal, given that China is the largest oil importer from Iran. In the past, the United States had shut European oil access for the Chinese. Now that tensions between the U.S. and China are intensifying, Europe may feel the ripple effects of any escalation, as China’s economic and trade power can lead to sharp responses.