A new Infratest poll paints a grim picture for the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), signaling a potential crisis point for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. The survey, conducted this week, indicates the SPD would garner just 13% of the vote if a federal election were held on Sunday, a significant drop from 14% in December and the party’s lowest showing since August 2019. This continued erosion of support raises serious questions about the long-term viability of the “traffic light” coalition comprised of the SPD, Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP).
The conservative CDU/CSU bloc currently polls at 28%, a slight gain, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains stagnant at 25%, demonstrating the enduring appeal of its populist message amidst widespread economic anxieties. The Greens remain at 12% and the Left Party at 10%, further marginalizing the SPD’s position. The newly formed BSW party struggles with 3% and remains below the parliamentary threshold, mirroring the situation for the FDP.
Public satisfaction with the governing coalition remains stubbornly low. A mere 20% of Germans express satisfaction with the government’s performance, a figure unchanged since the end of 2023. A substantial 78% harbor discontent, reflecting a persistent disconnect between the government’s policies and the public’s expectations. While a slight majority (48%) believe the coalition will remain in power until 2026, a significant 45% deem its survival unlikely, suggesting growing political instability.
Individual ministerial performances are also under scrutiny. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius remains a rare bright spot, retaining a majority (57%) expressing satisfaction with his work – although even this rating has softened slightly. However, Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil faces mounting criticism, with a mere 26% approval and a majority expressing dissatisfaction. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leading the opposition CDU, struggles to inspire confidence, with only 24% expressing satisfaction. Similar dissatisfaction is prevalent regarding Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) and Economics Minister Katheine Reiche (CDU), the latter of whom remains largely unknown to a significant portion of the electorate.
The poll data also highlights the challenges faced by prominent figures outside the governing sphere. Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder (CSU) sees his approval rating decline further, while AfD faction leader Alice Weidel continues to polarize public opinion. The leadership of the Left Party (Jan van Aken) and the Greens (Franziska Brantner) suffer from low recognition and limited public endorsement.
The survey, based on responses from 1,323 eligible voters, underscores a growing sense of political disillusionment across Germany and portends a period of significant political flux ahead of the next federal election. The SPD’s decline, coupled with the far-right AfD’s entrenched position and widespread dissatisfaction with the current government, creates a volatile environment ripe for further political realignment.