RWI Estimates Higher Fuel Tax Revenue BMF Disputes Contradictory German Tax Forecast

RWI Estimates Higher Fuel Tax Revenue BMF Disputes Contradictory German Tax Forecast

According to an analysis conducted by the RWI’s “Environment and Resources” department, the German federal government collected approximately half a billion euros more in VAT in March due to high gasoline prices. The report, cited by “Bild”, detailed that the daily VAT revenue was estimated to be significantly higher following the increase in diesel prices, equating to 360 million euros for the entire month. Separately, the monthly VAT surplus attributable to gasoline amounted to about 130 million euros.

Manuel Frondel, the head of the RWI department, advocated for the complete abolition of VAT on gasoline, stating that the state should not profit from rising fuel costs. He suggested that the VAT on energy sources should “completely disappear” in the medium term. Frondel argued that the state is already benefiting from the expected increase in CO2 pricing on fossil fuels, making it difficult to justify simultaneously increasing VAT revenues.

Conversely, the Federal Ministry of Finance, led by Lars Klingbeil (SPD), disputed the RWI’s findings. The Ministry stated that the high prices for gasoline actually lead to a reduction in overall consumption, meaning the VAT revenues would not increase as projected.