Russia could expect significant extra revenue from its commodity trade because of the Iran war. An economic impact assessment from the KSE Institute at the Kyiv School of Economics – reported by Der Spiegel – reaches this conclusion. Even in the most optimistic scenario of an end to fighting in the Persian Gulf soon, higher oil and gas prices could bring Russia an additional $84 billion in revenue-direct Kremlin tax receipts would rise by about $45 billion.
From the perspective of European security policy, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as quickly as possible, regardless of the circumstances, said study author Benjamin Hilgenstock to Der Spiegel. Hilgenstock is an economist and director of the KSE Center for Geo‑economics.
If the conflict drags on, Russia’s earnings could climb even further. Should hostilities cease at the end of May, the projected total would reach $161.3 billion, with tax receipts up by $97 billion. A six‑month conflict would see Russia net $252.4 billion more than it would have without the war, and tax revenue would be higher by roughly $151 billion.