The ARD poll suggests the outcome of the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election on 22 March could be very close.
Using data from an Infratest survey carried out Monday to Wednesday, 1,534 eligible voters answered the question. The current percentages are: CDU 29 % (up 1 point versus February; 27.7 % in the 2021 election), SPD 28 % (up 1 point; 35.7 % in 2021), AfD 19 % (stable; 8.3 % in 2021), the Greens 8 % (down 1; 9.3 % in 2021), the Free Voters 4.5 % (down 0.5; 5.4 % in 2021), and the Left 5 % (stable; 2.5 % in 2021). Other parties together account for 6.5 % (down 0.5).
When it comes to voting decisions, 73 % of the respondents say they have already decided, 12 % admit that their party preference could change by the election day, and 15 % lean toward abstention.
For the leadership of the next state government, 35 % favour an SPD‑led coalition, 32 % prefer a CDU‑led one, 21 % want an AfD‑led government, and 12 % remain undecided. If respondents are asked to choose only between the SPD and the CDU, 36 % select an SPD government while 36 % opt for a CDU government, leaving 28 % uncertain.
In a direct election scenario for the premier, Alexander Schweitzer of the SPD receives support from 38 % of voters (up 4 points since February), Gordon Schnieder of the CDU from 21 % (up 4 points), and Jan Bollinger of the AfD from 8 % (up 1 point). Thirty‑three percent of respondents are “I don’t know” or give no answer. When the choice is restricted to the SPD and CDU premier candidates, 41 % choose Schweitzer, 23 % choose Schnieder, and 36 % remain undecided.
Satisfaction with the current coalition of the SPD, Greens, and FDP is high: 46 % report being satisfied or very satisfied. A similar percentage (49 %) is dissatisfied or not satisfied. Regarding Premier Alexander Schweitzer, 44 % view him positively, 28 % negatively, and the remaining 28 % are indifferent or unaware.
Views on party leaders are as follows:
” Gordon Schnieder (CDU) – 23 % satisfied, 25 % dissatisfied, 52 % no opinion.
” Katrin Eder (Greens) – 20 % satisfied, 24 % dissatisfied, 56 % no opinion.
” Daniela Schmitt (FDP) – 19 % satisfied, 23 % dissatisfied, 58 % no opinion.
” Joachim Streit (Free Voters) – 15 % satisfied, 22 % dissatisfied, 63 % no opinion.
” Jan Bollinger (AfD) – 12 % satisfied, 28 % dissatisfied, 60 % no opinion.
The ARD clarified that this poll is not a forecast but an indicator of current public opinion. The Sunday question measures present inclinations rather than definitive voting behavior, and any conclusions about the election’s outcome should be drawn with caution.