According to political research expert Roberto Heinrich, the AfD can still attract additional voters despite its current high polling percentages.
Speaking to the “Handelsblatt” a demoscope from the Infratest Institute noted that the party boasts a substantial and solid core of reliable voters. These supporters display very strong loyalty to the AfD, demonstrated both in their perceived competence and general evaluation of the party, often leading them to rule out other political parties as viable alternatives.
Heinrich asserts that this deeply ingrained loyalty explains the party’s consistently high polling averages in recent months, stabilizing its position and suggesting that further growth remains possible. However, he clarifies that the size of the AfD’s additional voter potential is not determined solely by the upcoming state elections. Instead, the overall trajectory of the political landscape, the relevant thematic agenda, and the strategies implemented by political competitors in proximity to the AfD are the decisive factors. Consequently, the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are predicted to have only a limited impact on this potential.
Nevertheless, a successful outcome in the state elections could provide the party with additional momentum. Heinrich concluded that high AfD support in the autumn state polls-particularly if it signifies a clear jump ahead of its competitors-would signal increasing political relevance and constitute an overall elevation of the party’s standing.