The OECD reports that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the conflict in the Middle East. The clash is generating new inflationary pressure and creating significant uncertainties, according to the organisation’s latest intermediate world‑economy report released on Thursday.
It still expects global GDP growth of 2.9 % in 2026, but has eased its outlook for 2027 from 3.1 % to 3.0 %. These projections, however, carry considerable uncertainty because of the unpredictable trajectory of the Middle‑Eastern conflict.
The energy shock triggered by the war is likely to weigh heavily on worldwide growth and increase inflation. In the United States, the OECD forecasts GDP growth of 2.0 % for 2026, slowing to 1.7 % in 2027. For the euro area, growth is expected at 0.8 % in 2026 and 1.2 % in 2027. China’s economy is projected to slow to 4.4 % growth in 2026 and 4.3 % in 2027.
Regarding Germany, the OECD predicts modest gains in economic performance this year, with growth projected at 0.8 % in 2026 and 1.5 % in 2027.