Following the closing of the polling stations in Hungary, Péter Magyar, the chairman of the Tisza party, expressed optimism. Speaking Sunday evening, the challenger to the incumbent head of government, Viktor Orbán, described the day as “historic”. While admitting to being “optimistic, but cautious” Magyar dismissed claims from the ruling Fidesz party as a “delusion” and urged everyone to remain peaceful and patient.
Preliminary election results are expected throughout the evening. Unlike in Germany, there are no immediate post-election polls. However, a poll conducted by the 21 Research Center for Telex, which ran from April 8th to 11th and was released after the polls closed, indicates that Tisza is leading. According to this poll, Magyar’s party could secure 132 out of 199 seats in the National Assembly, which would grant them a narrow two-thirds majority-a threshold required to amend the constitution. Previously, Tisza had no representation in parliament.
Orbán’s Fidesz party, which won 135 seats with the government partner KDNP in the last election, is expected to lose significantly, potentially dropping to 61 representatives. The Mi Hazánk Mozgalom party is projected to gain 5 seats, while the National Minority Representative will be represented by one deputy. Meanwhile, the Democratic Coalition and the Hungarian Socialist Party face uncertainty regarding their chances of gaining parliamentary seats.
Another poll from the Median Institute, conducted in the five days leading up to the election, also positions Tisza clearly ahead, suggesting the party could receive 55.5% of the list votes, compared to Fidesz’s 37.9%.
Establishing a reliable trend about the final election winner is likely only possible several hours after the polls close. This complexity is also due to the electoral system, which Orbán modified starting in 2011. Of the 199 mandates, 106 are allocated based on the first vote in single-member constituencies with a simple majority. For the remaining 93 mandates, not only the list votes but also all votes received by losing direct candidates, as well as all votes that place the constituency winners ahead of the second-place finishers, are taken into consideration.