Economist Achim Steinbach, Chief Economist for Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), has strongly challenged analyses from several economic research institutes that suggest the funds designated for infrastructure and climate neutrality (SVIK) have been nearly entirely misused or deviated from their intended purpose. In an opinion piece published in the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, Steinbach argued that when proper criteria are applied, the money will, as demanded, be utilized for an additional 95 percent in investments.
According to Steinbach, simply comparing the absolute size of investments is not the critical measure for assessing fiscal added value. Instead, it is crucial to determine how the investments would have developed under a baseline fiscal scenario without the special fund. “We base our study on exactly this adjusted reference path” Steinbach explained, alongside ministry staff.
He asserted that the resulting conclusion is unambiguous: under the specified conditions, a large portion of the SVIK’s approximately 177 billion euros slated for use until 2028 would not have materialized. Therefore, he concluded that “roughly 95 percent of these funds are, from a fiscal policy perspective, genuinely additional”. The economist argued this finding refutes theories concerning a ‘transshipment station’ or ‘diversion of purpose,’ claiming the critics are based on implausible assumptions about the reference scenario, such as omitting consolidation pressures or implicitly projecting the fiscal frameworks of previous years.
Earlier, in mid-March, both the Munich Ifo Institute and the employer-affiliated IW in Cologne released studies investigating whether the German government was deploying the 500 billion euro special fund appropriately for genuinely “additional” investments. The Ifo Institute calculated a potential “diversion quotient” of up to 95 percent for the additional debt in 2025, while the Institute of German Economy (IW) estimated 86 percent misuse.
The Ifo Institute noted that the precise figure depended on demarcation issues; however, they wrote that, in any case, at least three-quarters of the raised loans were diverted. The institute’s president, Clemens Fuest, highlighted this as a “major problem” urging that the additionally accumulated debt must be used for investments that support economic growth in the long term.