A blockade of shipping traffic not only hampers the flow of oil, gas and other raw materials but also indirectly disrupts EU trade flows through global supply chains. This was the key finding of a Thursday‑released analysis by the Ifo Institute and Econpol Europe.
“Imports from Iran and its neighboring countries that arrive in Europe via the Strait of Hormuz account for only a relatively small share of all imports” said Lisandra Flach, head of Ifo’s Center for International Economics. “However, the picture changes when we look solely at oil and gas supplies. Risks also carry indirect effects through global supply chains”.
According to the trade‑economists’ calculations, about two percent of all non‑EU imports into the EU come from Iran and adjacent states via the Strait of Hormuz. For crude oil this share rises to 6.2 percent, and for liquefied natural gas it climbs to 8.7 percent-substantially higher.
Beyond the potential bottleneck caused by a blockade, Flach warns of indirect risks: “A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could severely curtail the oil exports of the Gulf states lying west of the strait. Even if the direct impact on Europe is modest, the resulting rise in oil prices and supply‑chain disruptions represent a greater threat to European markets”.